Resume af teksten:
Aktiemarkeder faldt i de fleste lande i går, mens lange renter steg, og amerikanske dieselterminer nåede rekordniveauer.
Asiatiske markeder stiger i morges, og aktiefutures peger mod positiv åbning i Europa og USA.
Federal Reserve ventes i aften at hæve renten, efter at inflationsdata kom lidt over forventningerne.
Markederne indregner en sandsynlighed på over 90 procent for en amerikansk renteforhøjelse.
ECB-forventningen er justeret til yderligere renteforhøjelser i december og marts på grund af højere energipriser.
I Sverige ventes husholdningsforbruget at accelerere, mens arbejdsmarkedet fortsat ikke viser et klart vendepunkt.
Riksbanken fastholdes på en forventning om første renteforhøjelse i foråret, men sandsynligheden for december er steget.
Det svenske valgresultat ventes tidligst endeligt torsdag, da omkring 300.000 stemmer fortsat mangler at blive talt op.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
Rising energy prices and AI jitters continue to dominate the market backdrop. Equity indices fell in most countries yesterday, while long-term yields rose another few basis points. Asian markets are, however, in the green this morning, and equity futures point to a positive open in both Europe and the US. FX moves were relatively limited, while US diesel futures reached new record highs.
Worth reading! Today’s Ögat (in Swedish) covers a number of interesting issues, with uncertainty as the common theme. Sweden’s parliamentary election looks set to result in a difficult government formation. The Riksbank is moving closer to a rate hike, but when? The Federal Reserve appears set to hike rates for credibility reasons, but what happens next? Finally, we sum up our FX Pilot publication and our outlook for currencies.
A very interesting day ahead. We start with UK inflation, which is expected to rise against the backdrop of high energy prices. Swedish household consumption, unemployment and the Riksbank’s Business Survey are all important pieces of the puzzle for the economic outlook. This morning, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will also deliver her annual State of the Union address , where she is expected to present, among other things, an “Alliance for the future” with Canada . In the afternoon, we get US retail sales. The main event, however, is tonight’s Fed decision.
Hike or hold? Several Fed officials have said that tonight’s decision hinges on last week’s inflation data, which came in slightly above expectations. Expectations are therefore set on a hike, with markets pricing more than 90% probability. It is not a completely done deal, however, and the question is how markets would react to a no-hike outcome. Would a shock to short-term rates push long yields lower? Or would long yields rise further on concerns that a politicised Fed will fail to bring inflation under control? Also keep an eye on the dot plots – Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is not expected to provide his own rate forecast, but the median projections from the other members will provide an important signal for the future. Read more in Elisabet and Olle’s Preview .
New ECB forecast. We are revising our ECB forecast and now expect further hikes in December and March. Energy prices have risen sharply, and ECB officials are concerned that price pressures will spread to the rest of the economy. So far, there are no clear signs of such spillovers, but the ECB appears willing to tighten as insurance against this happening – despite President Lagarde’s strong objections to describing the move as an “insurance hike”. Read more in Pia and Marcus’ comment .
Nordic key stories
Hawkish signals from the ECB and Fed put pressure on the Riksbank , while the krona has weakened as both rates and energy prices have risen sharply. We stick to our forecast of a first hike in the spring, but the situation is becoming increasingly difficult and the probability of an earlier hike – most likely in December – has risen significantly. More on this in SEB:s Sweden 360 .
On today’s agenda: Swedish household consumption appears set to accelerate, and Statistics Sweden’s new weekly indicator suggests that consumption continued to rise in July. Labour market indicators have improved somewhat, but still signal no clear turnaround in the near term. The labour market has so far been weaker than the Riksbank expected, and we believe a more pronounced recovery will take time. The Riksbank’s Business Survey will also be of interest – we will be watching both price plans and growth indicators.
Election drama continues. The Swedish Election Authority says the result is unlikely to be final before Thursday. Around 300,000 votes remain to be counted – more than usual – while the gap between the two sides is just 32,000 votes. The Tidö parties need to gain two seats from the opposition parties to secure a majority. More on the election here .
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/80748
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