Resume af teksten:
Federal Reserve fastholdt renten, mens to medlemmer stemte for en forhøjelse på 25 basispoint.
Formand Warshs blødere udtalelser sænkede korte renter, svækkede dollar og støttede aktier.
Sandsynligheden for en amerikansk renteforhøjelse i december faldt til 82 procent fra 94 procent.
S&P 500 og Nasdaq steg begge 0,3 procent, mens Nasdaq-futures senere faldt 0,8 procent.
Microsoft klarede sig godt efter regnskabet, mens Alphabet faldt markant.
Olieprisen faldt til omkring 114 dollar pr. tønde efter håb om fredsforhandlinger.
ECB ventes at fastholde renten, mens der fortsat forventes to forhøjelser på 25 basispoint i december 2026 og marts 2027.
Norske detailsalg eksklusive biler faldt 0,4 procent i september og var uændrede i tredje kvartal.
Fra SEB:
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Global key stories
Softer comments from Fed Chair Warsh following the decision to leave rates unchanged (see below) pushed short-end yields slightly lower, weakened the USD and supported equities. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed modestly higher (+0.3%). Tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet reported after the close; Microsoft fared well, while Alphabet fell sharply, dragging down US equity futures (Nasdaq −0.8%) and, in particular, tech-heavy Asian markets (KOSPI −1.0% and Shenzhen −2.0%). Oil prices fell overnight and are trading around USD 114 per barrel again, as hopes of peace talks appear to have eased concerns about further supply disruptions stemming from escalations in the Middle East.
Divided Fed leaves rates unchanged pending more information. As expected, the Fed left its policy rate unchanged last night as it awaits further data. Two members, Cook and Hammack, dissented in favour of a 25bp hike. The main surprise was Fed Chair Warsh’s somewhat softer tone at the press conference. He stressed that the Fed had made progress by tightening financial conditions since September. We interpret the message as consistent with our forecast for a December rate hike, although the outlook beyond that remains uncertain. Warsh’s softer tone prompted markets to pare back Fed rate expectations: the implied probability of a December hike is now 82%, down from 94% before the decision. Read more here .
UK Budget reassures markets. Andy Bernham’s first Budget, presented yesterday, reassured markets, mainly by deferring several difficult public spending decisions (more here ). The Budget is unlikely to materially affect the Bank of England’s decision at next week’s meeting, where we expect a 25bp hike.
Today’s agenda. The ECB’s rate decision (see below) and earnings reports from Amazon and Intel after the US market close dominate today’s agenda. There is also a busy Swedish data calendar, alongside the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, and the first estimate of US third-quarter GDP growth (see below). Also worth watching is the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, due at 04:00 CET on Friday morning.
ECB expected to hold today; focus on the 14:45 CET press conference. Energy prices pose upside risks to inflation, but incoming data have broadly tracked the ECB’s projections, with no clear signs yet of second-round effects through wages. Meanwhile, business surveys point to continued improvement in the economy, although consumer confidence remains weak. Higher long-term yields have also tightened financial conditions, reducing the need for further immediate rate hikes. We continue to expect two 25bp hikes, in December 2026 and March 2027. Read more in our ECB Preview here .
Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, expected to rise in line with CPI. Core CPI rose by 0.3% in September, and we expect a similar increase in core PCE. High airfares in the PPI data add upward pressure, while lower healthcare prices pose a downside risk. Monthly price increases remain above levels consistent with the inflation target, and core PCE inflation remains significantly higher than core CPI inflation, even after the downward revision. A higher inflation reading today would prompt markets to price in a greater probability of a December rate hike again.
Nordic Outlook Updates: China and India. Today, our Nordic Outlook Updates turn to two major economies, China and India . We will continue to publish our forecasts and assessments of macroeconomic developments in individual countries and regions on our Research page through Tuesday, 10 November.
Nordic key stories
Busy macro data calendar. Third-quarter GDP, the NIER’s Economic Tendency Survey, September retail sales, and wages are all due at 08:00 CET. The GDP indicator levelled off in the first two months of the third quarter following a strong second quarter; we expect GDP growth to slow to 2.9% from 3.3% in the previous quarter. We expect some softening in the NIER survey as higher energy prices and expected Riksbank rate hikes weigh on households and businesses. Price plans are likely to remain elevated, while labour market indicators will be important to monitor for signs of a slowdown. We also expect a further increase in retail sales in September, but a prolonged period of high energy prices and rising interest rates poses a clear downside risk to our optimistic growth forecasts.
Norwegian retail sales continue its sideways trend. Retail sales ex. autos declined 0.4% m/m in September, leaving Q3 unchanged from the previous quarter. The details were quite mixed. Looking ahead, weak consumer confidence suggests continued caution, although rising purchasing power should provide some support. We expect household consumption to strengthen as households increasingly shift from savings to spending, making consumption an increasingly important driver of growth, where we must wait until 26 November for Q3 GDP numbers. More here .
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/82820
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