Resume af teksten:
Amerikanske PMI-tal viste fortsat styrke i industrien og især i servicesektoren.
Også euroområdet viste overraskende stærke PMI-tal.
Amerikanske 2- og 10-årige statsrenter steg begge 15 basispoint, og 10-årsrenten ligger omkring 5,11 procent.
Europæiske renter steg med knap 10 basispoint.
Amerikanske aktieindeks faldt omkring 1 procent, mens asiatiske markeder falder bortset fra Tokyo.
Oliepriserne steg først, men faldt igen efter meldinger om transport gennem Hormuzstrædet.
Der drøftes fortsat et muligt amerikansk eksportforbud mod diesel, men der er ikke truffet nogen beslutning.
Norges Bank og Riksbanken ventes at træffe rentebeslutninger i dag, mens markedsforventningerne til Norges Bank er delte.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
There were large movements in the financial markets yesterday, and once again statistics from the US show unexpected resilience and strength despite obvious growth risks linked to the Middle East. Yesterday’s message of strength came from the PMI, where manufacturing but especially the service sector surprised with further gains. If you disregard the large movements during the pandemic, we have to go back to 2015 before we find correspondingly high PMI figures, even the euro area showed surprisingly strong PMI numbers The combination of a continued strong economy together with high energy prices lifts expectations of policy rate hikes further and US Treasury yields rose by 15 basis points, both the 2- and 10-year. Weak demand for an auction and Fed statements about the need for more rate hikes also contributed to rising yields. The US 10-year yield is now trading around 5.11%. European yields followed suit but the increase stayed just below 10 basis points. The rise in yields turned the stock markets downwards and the US indices fell around 1 percent. The decline in Europe was lower, but stock market futures point to a continued decline today. Stock markets in Asia are also falling except in Tokyo, where the Nikkei is up by over 1%.
Export ban on diesel remains on the agenda . The resilience of the real economy lifted oil prices yesterday, but reports of successful transports through the Strait of Hormuz have reversed the trend overnight. Worse still, discussions about a US export ban on diesel seem to be continuing. Yesterday, diesel futures in the US fell on the data, while the corresponding figure in Europe rose sharply. The oil industry gives the thumbs down, and also points out that it could have the effect of making petrol more expensive. However, nothing has been decided.
Today’s agenda is packed with central bank decisions and surveys on the state of the economy. Eyes are also turned to New York and the UN annual meeting, where Trump has now given Xi a tarmac welcomed. At the same time, Finance Minister Bessent announced a two-month extension of the “trade peace” with China.
Norges Bank is raising interest rates, but there is considerable uncertainty. Norges Bank has previously indicated a need for higher interest rates, but more favourable inflation outcomes have raised questions about whether the need really exists. We expect it to still fall into a hike and that the interest rate path will continue to indicate a hike going forward, but we also note that expectations for the day are split and see the decision as 50/50, see preview here .
Nordic key stories
Unchanged from the Riksbank, but guidance going forward is super important. We expect the Riksbank to keep the policy rate unchanged today, but that the inflation risk still means that the interest rate path indicates a 60% probability of a hike in the next three meetings. The good starting point means that the Riksbank has the opportunity to take more information into account, but developments in recent weeks have contributed to a policy rate hike creeping closer. Both the monetary policy report, but above all the press conference, will be extremely important to scrutinize. See the preview here , the investor survey here and the trader floor survey here .
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/80967
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