Resume af teksten:
USA’s aktiemarkeder blev styrket af moderate forbrugerprisindeksdata og stigninger i AI-aktier. USAs månedlige budgetunderskud steg til det højeste niveau i mere end fem år i juli, delvist på grund af kalendereffekter, hvilket øger bekymringer om offentlige finanser. USA’s finansministerium solgte 10-årige obligationer til den højeste rente, 4,68%, siden finanskrisen i 2007. Asiatiske aktiemarkeder stiger også, ledet af Japan og Sydkorea, mens oliepriserne er faldet svagt til lige over $88. UK satiren tænker på Nigel Farages møde med Count Binface ved suppleringsvalg i Clacton, men Farage forventes stadig at have opbakning trods nationale udfordringer.
Norges Bank forventes ikke at ændre renten i dag på grund af lav inflation i juni og juli. Svenske endelige forbrugerprisindeksdata forventes at bekræfte det høje resultat fra juli. Svensk ledighed faldt til 6,5% i juli ifølge Arbetsförmedlingen, men der er stadig uenigheder med Statistiska centralbyråns tal. I Sverige har oppositionens forspring mindsket i sommer, men de rød-grønne har stadig en fordel forud for valget i september, mens Kristendemokraterne ser deres højeste støtte i seks år.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
US stock markets were supported by modest CPI data and gains in AI stocks, while there were small movements in long-term interest rates and the dollar. The fact that the US monthly budget deficit rose to the highest level in more than five years in July (albeit partly due to calendar effects) is a reminder of growing risks from public finances, driven by rising health care costs, pensions and interest payments. In the end, this risks creating increased concern about long-term interest rates. The US Treasury yesterday sold 10-year bonds at the highest yield, 4.68%, since the 2007 financial crisis. Today’s issuance of 30-year yields may give further indication of the appetite for US government securities. Asian stock markets are also rising, supported by AI stocks, and driven by gains in Japan and South Korea, among others. Stock market futures point to small movements at the opening in the US but upwards in Europe. Oil prices have retreated slightly since yesterday and are now trading just above $88.
The US CPI further eases the pressure on the Fed to tighten policy. Today’s PPI data will provide more clues around the Fed’s target variable core PCE, but the preliminary estimate is reassuring (about 0.2% m/m). The market is now pricing in less than a 50% probability of a September hike (9 basis points) and only a little more than a full hike through December. Read more about US inflation here .
There will be British satire tonight when Nigel Farage meets the “alien” Count Binface in the by-election in Clacton. Clacton residents – who are said to be less amused by the “rubbish bin” and other pranksters – are expected to stick with Farage, but regardless of the election results, the money donations and resignations from parliament appear to have hurt Reform’s leaders at the national level.
Nordic key stories
Norges Bank on hold today. Norges Bank has signalled a hike at one of its upcoming meetings, but unexpectedly low inflation in both June and July suggests an unchanged interest rate today. We believe that it is too early for Norges Bank to close the door to a September hike, but August inflation will be important. Today’s meeting is an interim meeting, which means that Norges Bank will not release any new forecasts and that we will have to settle for verbal signalling. Read more here and here . On today’s agenda is also a new oil survey for the third quarter.
Today’s final Swedish CPI figures are expected to confirm the unexpectedly high outcome according to the preliminary July statistics, but with more details (more here ). Yesterday’s consumption data provided further support for strong GDP growth in the second quarter and for our compared to consensus optimistic GDP forecast for this year. However, total consumption still lags behind retail sales.
Swedish unemployment fell slightly in July. According to the Swedish Public Employment Service, the unemployment rate was 6.5% (June 6.6%). The large differences between the Swedish Public Employment Service’s and Statistics Sweden’s statistics remain, which complicates the picture of the labour market.
The opposition’s lead ahead of Sweden’s September general elections has halved during the summer , according to SvD/Demoskop (pay link, only in Swedish), but with the Liberals still below the threshold, the red-green coalition retains a clear advantage. The Christian Democrats reaches its highest support in 6 years, while the Centre Party overtakes the Greens and the Left in yet another signal that voters are moving to the right again.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/79663
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