Resume af teksten:
Demokraterne har fået kontrol over begge kamre i den amerikanske Kongres.
Donald Trump kan blokere økonomiske reformer som præsident og bevarer indflydelse på udenrigs- og handelspolitik.
Markedet har reageret med lavere amerikanske renter, svagere dollar og lavere aktiefutures.
Nye meldinger om USA-Iran-konflikten gav fald og efterfølgende genopretning i olie- og gaspriserne.
Nasdaq steg 0,8 procent, mens europæiske aktier generelt lukkede lidt lavere.
Riksbankens rentebeslutning, europæisk inflation og amerikansk ISM for servicesektoren offentliggøres i dag.
Flertallet i SEB’s undersøgelser forventer, at Riksbanken hæver styringsrenten.
Markedet indregner over 90 procents sandsynlighed for en renteforhøjelse i dag.
Fra SEB:
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Global key stories
Democrats gain control of both chambers of the US Congress , a bitter but not entirely unexpected setback for Donald Trump – who asked voters to imagine his name on the ballots. With the Democrats in control of both the House and the Senate, fiscal policy is likely to largely end up in a stalemate. While Democrats can then decide on their own economic reforms, these must also be signed by Donald Trump, who has already announced that he intends to become “Mr. Veto”. At the same time, Trump retains substantial influence over foreign and trade policy, and developments in the Middle East are a key factor for both the world economy and the financial markets going forward. The White House has pushed for both escalation and renewed negotiations. Read more in Elisabet’s commentary here.
The market has so far reacted with lower US yields, a weaker dollar and lower stock market futures, but movements are small. Asian stock market indices show a mixed performance this morning, with larger declines in Japan, and futures point to a negative opening in both Europe and the US. Democratic gains are expected to bring increased scrutiny and regulation of the AI sector, where the buildout of new data centres has been a prominent campaign issue in states such as Georgia and Texas. Democrats have been declared the winners in both states.
Yesterday: New headlines about progress in the US-Iran conflict caused oil and gas prices to fall rapidly yesterday and then bounce back after conflicting reports from Iranian sources. Another strong U.S. labour-market release (JOLTS) contributed to a modest rise in government bond yields. European equities generally closed slightly lower, while U.S. technology stocks found firmer footing, helping the Nasdaq finish the session up 0.8%.
Today: An exciting day awaits with the Riksbank rate announcement, European inflation, Norwegian home prices and the US services ISM. The market is also keeping an eye on the US Treasury’s quarterly borrowing report this afternoon.
Nordic key stories
Recommended reading! We continue to publish our Nordic Outlook updates. Denmark and Norway both see consumption rising on the back of improving household finances, but the outlook for growth and inflation diverges notably. In Norway, mainland activity is expected to stabilise in 2027-2028 after a weak first half this year, while Danish growth accelerates further on the back of very high export growth. DKK strength reduces the probability of rate hikes, while in Norway, the inflation outlook remains mixed, forcing Norges Bank to keep rates elevated until the end of next year. You can find these and all our previous updates on our Research page .
The vast majority, both in our investor survey and in our trading room survey , believe that the Riksbank will raise the policy rate today. The question is whether the Executive Board is equally unanimous or whether any of the members, Göran Hjelm and perhaps also Aino Bunge, choose to make reservations. Hjelm’s previous reasoning, which emphasises the real economy consequences of the monetary policy balancing act, suggest he may see arguments for proceeding more cautiously. Swedish households carry high mortgage debt, and as many as 80% have floating-rate mortgages, compared with roughly 50% in 2022. Although consumption has finally begun to recover, households are facing strong headwinds this winter as energy prices surge. At the same time, underlying inflation is subdued and the labour market remains cool. While a rate hike today appears almost certain, there may be differing views within the Executive Board regarding the degree of tightening required. The minutes will not be published until next week, but any dissents will be announced today.
SEB’s trading room survey suggests only limited market reactions if the Riksbank raises rates today and signals broadly unchanged risks to the policy rate path relative to September, which is also SEB’s main scenario. Should the Riksbank instead signal greater upside or downside risks, market moves could be more meaningful: market rates could rise or fall by 3-6 basis points, while the Swedish krona could strengthen or weaken by around four figs, according to the average response among traders on our trading floor. The market is pricing in more than a 90 per cent probability of a hike today and a further increase of almost 90 basis points in the coming year. Read more here and here .
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/83189
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