Resume af teksten:
August startede med stigende aktiekurser både i Europa og USA efter regnskabssæsonen, især drevet af tech-sektoren. Positiv momentum fortsatte i Asien, hvor Kospi steg over 2%, men aftog senere. Fremtidig aktiehandel i Europa og USA peger på moderate stigninger ved åbning. Japan’s Nikkei faldt med 0,4%, påvirket af yen’s styrkelse efter en fælles valutaintervention mellem Japan og USA. Olipriser faldt, men steg svagt igen; Brent handles lige under 85 USD pr. tønde. I Europa er lave flodvandstande og transportproblemer, og der er bekymringer om lave naturgaslagre før vinteren. I Sverige faldt fremstillings-PMI lidt, men forbliver over gennemsnittet, og EUR/SEK steg til omkring 11.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
August began with rising stock prices in both Europe and then the US after the earnings reporting season and the tech sector continued to fuel higher valuations. Trading during the night and morning in Asia took over the positive momentum, with e.g. Kospi up over 2%, but has weighed down later in the morning. Stock market futures for Europe and the US point to moderate gains at the opening. At the time of writing, Japan’s Nikkei has fallen by 0.4%. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is partly held back by the strengthening of the Japanese yen after last week’s joint currency intervention by the authorities in Japan and the United States. Yesterday, the US continued to support new interventions if necessary, with the USD/JPY slightly above 157. The movements in the FX market were quite moderate yesterday, and EUR/USD remains a little above 1.15. Treasury bond yields on both 2 and 10-year maturities fell by about the same amount in the US as Germany, while the movement was slightly larger in the UK.
Oil prices continued to fall yesterday with hopes that negotiations between the US and Iran will continue, but there seemed to be disagreement over whether talks are actually underway, while Trump said it was Iran’s “last chance” to reach a deal. Oil prices are rising slightly this morning and Brent crude is trading just below USD 85 per barrel. Although crude oil supply is important, from a price perspective, it is mainly oil products that continue to be under pressure. Refining margins of almost four times higher than normal explain why prices at the pump are still high around the world. Read more from Bjarne here .
Exposed Europe, challenging risk picture ahead of winter. Media reporting in Europe has, in addition to the situation in Ceuta, continued to be centered on weather and climate. Yesterday, the military blew up a section of the Danube to get extra cooling water for a nuclear power plant in Romania. The low water levels in Rehn limit transport to 20 percent of normal and the transport cost is reported to be three times higher than at the end of June. In Germany, rivers are not only a convenient means of transportation; For example, the chemical industry is simply relegated to river transport as some products are considered too dangerous to be transported by road or train.
It is also worth paying attention to the strained inventory levels of natural gas in Europe. Even when Russian gas was shut off in 2022, stocks built up, but the current situation looks more like 2021, where the low inventory levels contributed to rapidly rising gas prices at the end of the year. There is now a great risk that the upcoming winter may lead to high heating costs, and occasionally high electricity prices (also with us in the Nordic region). For the fire, water and gas situation see three charts below.
Nordic key stories
Short Sweden sweep. The PMI for manufacturing fell back a little unexpectedly yesterday, but we still note that the index is clearly above 50 and historical average. Reassuringly, the index for corporate commodity and input prices also fell and ended up at the lowest level since February. EUR/SEK rose a bit, and is now back at 11. If anyone wonders what the water situation in Sweden and the Nordic countries looks like, the answer is that it is clearly below average but clearly above the recorded minimum levels. The Swedish grain harvest has started and the first reports have a clear positive undertone.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/79291
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