Resume af teksten:
Lange statsrenter steg fredag, og den franske 10-årige rente nåede sit højeste niveau siden 2008.
S&P 500 steg 0,2 procent, mens oliepriserne faldt efter at have været højere tidligere.
Aktiefutures i USA og Europa peger op, og de fleste asiatiske aktiemarkeder stiger.
Norges Bank og Riksbanken offentliggør rentebeslutninger torsdag.
Forventningerne til Norges Banks beslutning er delte, mens de fleste analytikere venter uændret rente i Sverige.
FN-mødet i New York og et planlagt møde mellem Xi Jinping og Donald Trump er blandt ugens politiske begivenheder.
USA og Kina har ifølge USA’s finansminister indledt forberedende samtaler.
CDU står til at falde under spærregrænsen i Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, mens AfD står til at blive størst.
Magdalena Andersson har indledt sonderinger om en regering og skal afrapportere 28. september.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The relief following the Fed’s interest rate hike to safeguard confidence in the inflation target was short-lived, with long-term interest rates rising clearly on Friday. Ten-year government bond yields in most countries are now only a few basis points below last week’s peaks. In France, the 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2008, while the spread against Germany widened by 6 basis points to 105 basis points.
The S&P 500 recovered despite the rise in interest rates and closed slightly higher (+0.2%). The reversal in oil prices, which erased an earlier increase, probably contributed to the turnaround. Despite Trump’s threats of further escalation in the Middle East, oil prices continue to fall this morning. US and European equity futures are pointing higher, while most Asian stock markets are also rising. Japan is closed, so there is no cash trading in US Treasuries during Asian hours, but futures suggest that yields will fall back somewhat when Europe opens.
We can look forward to an exciting week , especially in the Nordic region, with interest rate announcements from Norges Bank and the Riksbank on Thursday. Politics will also be in focus with the UN meeting in New York and a summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday; many meetings are planned between world leaders during the week and an agreement on Greenland is expected to be signed . According to US Treasury Secretary Bessent, the US and China have started preparatory talks in a positive spirit. In a diplomatic statement, the leaders of Canada, Brazil, the EU and Kenya call on the countries of the world to increase global cooperation.
Opinions on how problematic the rising long-term interest rates are divided , but I am leaning in the more pessimistic direction. It is difficult to see how highly indebted countries will be able to reverse the trend when ever higher interest costs contribute to larger deficits. Sooner or later, the market will force measures that lead to tightening and lower growth. Higher interest rates are already contributing to tightening. So far, the market can be said to be on the side of the optimists. The CDS – which reflects the market’s assessment of credit risk – is at moderate and stable levels, while stable or even strong currencies for several countries with high interest rates send the same signal. At the same time, Sweden, which has the EU’s lowest 10-year yield, has had a weaker currency and a shift towards safe countries, as during the euro crisis, is not discernible. Neither the central banks nor the market seem particularly worried about growth.
In Germany, the setbacks continue for Chancellor Friedrich Merz. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU looks set to fall below the five percent threshold and thus be eliminated from the state parliament, while the far-right AfD will become the largest party. The CDU is also losing big in Berlin, where the left-wing party Die Linke is making the strongest progress and will be the largest party. Despite the increased pressure, Merz is so far rejecting demands to resign.
Nordic key stories
Expectations for Norges Bank are divided , but we are, with great hesitation, sticking to the interest rate being raised by 25 basis points. However, slightly lower inflation suggests that the hike can be postponed. A majority in Bloomberg’s survey expect an increase, but almost half believe in an unchanged interest rate – and the undersigned is also leaning towards a later increase. More about Norges Bank here.
The Riksbank’s interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report in focus . All analysts believe in an unchanged interest rate on Thursday and the market is only pricing in +4 basis points, but according to our interest rate survey, there are those who believe that the interest rate can be raised now in September. Our forecast that the Riksbank will wait until the labour market turns, before raising interest rates, has faced strong headwinds after interest rate hikes from both the Fed and the ECB, which were also interpreted as hawkish by the market. Perhaps even more important are the very sharp increases in fuel and electricity prices, which will push up inflation significantly in the coming months. The risks to our forecast that the interest rate path signals a clear but moderate probability of an interest rate hike in the coming months are on the upside. Unlike most other central banks, the Riksbank has emphasised that the risks of inflation should be weighed against the risk of unnecessarily harming growth. After a long period of stagnation, household consumption looks set to pick up, but the question is what will happen if households are hit by both high energy prices and higher interest rates in the coming quarters. The Riksbank cannot do anything about an energy-driven rise in inflation and, unlike in many other countries, interest rate hikes will also lead to higher CPI inflation and higher rents and tenant-owner fees. The wage negotiations, which will begin with demands from the LO in October, will hardly be made easier by preventive interest rate hikes. Di’s Shadow Executive Board believes that the interest rate may remain unchanged in September, but is increasing its plans for interest rate hikes later on (more here , payment link, Swedish).
Attempts to form a government have begun, and on Friday, not unexpectedly, Magdalena Andersson received the first of four attempts to find a government that a majority in the Riksdag can tolerate. The introduction has not been particularly optimistic, with both the Left Party (V) and the Center Party (C) sticking tightly to the red lines from the election campaign. C has even said that V must renounce the requirement to be in the government in order to even start talks. It remains to be seen how much of the proposals are negotiation tactics. Both C and V may ultimately be able to live with a pure Social Democratic government. What political concessions will be required in that case, and how C and V will be able to agree on a budget, are much more difficult questions. Magdalena Andersson will report the results of her soundings on September 28.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/80854
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