Resume af teksten:
Konflikten i Mellemøsten eskalerer med optrapning i retorik og angreb. Trump har formelt meddelt Kongressen, at “militæroperationerne” mod Iran blev genoptaget den 7. juli. Dette markerer ifølge administrationen en ny 60-dages periode uden formel kongresgodkendelse. Trump annoncerede også på sociale medier en genindførelse af blokaden mod iranske fartøjer. Rapporterne har styrket dollaren og hævet oliepriserne med 12%. USAs aktiemarkeder lukkede lavere, og der forventes negative åbninger i både Europa og USA. Guldpriserne presses af den stærkere dollar. USAs inflation og andre økonomiske indikatorer er også i fokus i dag. I Sverige presser geopolitiske usikkerheder og stigende energipriser den svenske krone.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The rhetoric and attacks in the Middle East conflict have escalated gradually in recent days. Late on Monday evening Swedish time, Politico reported that Trump had formally informed Congress that the “military operations” against Iran had resumed on 7 July . Trump reportedly did so in a letter dated 10 July. According to the administration, the notification started a new 60-day period during which military operations can be conducted without formal congressional approval, a legal interpretation disputed by the opposition. Earlier in the day, Trump wrote on social media that the blockade of Iranian vessels was being reinstated with immediate effect and that the US expected a 20 per cent for its role as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT” on all cargo passing through the strait. Donald Trump said on social media that he will hold a speech to the nation on Thursday evening, 9 pm. ET (03:00 Friday Swedish time) but provided no further details.
The dollar, which had weakened during the morning, strengthened markedly following the reports. Long-term yields rose around the world, and US equity markets closed lower. Declines have continued in Asia, while futures point to a negative opening in both Europe and the US. Oil prices are around 12% higher than at Friday’s close, with Brent crude back at USD 85 per barrel. Gold is facing headwinds from both a stronger dollar and higher real yields and is once again approaching USD 4,000 per ounce. The Japanese yen has received support this morning after finance minister Katayama said that Japanese government bonds could be included in a tax-free investment programme for individuals. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues, with several companies, including a number of major US banks, reporting today.
US inflation, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and Warsh’s congressional hearing are on today’s agenda. Core inflation has recently been lower than expected but remains stubbornly too high. Headline inflation is expected to have fallen to 3.8% year-on-year; still high, but significantly below last month’s 4.2%. Lower energy prices are expected to bring inflation down relatively quickly over the coming months, but the renewed hostilities in the Middle East have created fresh upside risks. In a speech yesterday, Fed Governor Waller warned that policy rates may need to be raised if elevated underlying inflation persists. Markets are pricing in around a 45 percent probability of a rate increase as early as July, which appears high given the considerable uncertainty and divisions within the Fed. Warsh’s appearance before Congress will therefore be particularly interesting.
Andy Burnham is expected to take over as leader of the UK Labour Party on Friday, and, as a result, become the next prime minister. Read more about what this could mean for the economy and financial markets in Malte, Maya and Matthews’ analysis here .
Nordic key stories
The Swedish krona tends to struggle in an environment characterised by both higher US interest rates and risk-off sentiment. Sweden’s relatively low interest rates make the krona less attractive as an investment than currencies in economies offering higher yields. The krona could also become a funding currency in so-called carry trades, a strategy that, in simplified terms, involves borrowing in a low-yielding currency and investing in a higher-yielding one. In practice, investors sell the funding currency, such as SEK, in exchange for the investment currency, such as USD. Adding to the headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and high energy prices are weakening the global growth outlook, which also weighs on the krona.
Lastly, we congratulate Swedish Crown Princess Victoria on her birthday and wish France a Bonne Fete Nationale!
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/78348
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