Resume af teksten:
Amerikanske aktier faldt fredag, men genvandt senere tabene, mens asiatiske markeder og aktiefutures steg i weekenden.
Trump sagde, at han vil give diplomati i Mellemøsten en chance, og Brent-olie faldt til lige under 110 dollar pr. tønde.
Markedets forventninger til centralbankernes renteforhøjelser faldt i sidste uge trods højere oliepriser.
Tirsdagens amerikanske valg bliver ugens hovedfokus, og Demokraterne ventes at få flertal i Repræsentanternes Hus.
Svensk økonomisk vækst var fortsat stærk i tredje kvartal ifølge det foreløbige BNP-estimat.
SEB’s boligprisindikator i Sverige faldt med 5 point til 38.
Svensk CPIF-inflation eksklusive energi ventes at falde til 0,4 procent i oktober.
Riksbanken ventes at hæve styringsrenten onsdag, mens Norges Bank ventes at fastholde renten på 4,50 procent.
Fra SEB:
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Global key stories
US equities initially continued to fall on Friday evening , but subsequently recovered and ended at roughly the same levels as when European markets closed (note that the Swedish market closed early on Friday). AI-related concerns were the main driver, with the Nasdaq falling almost 3% and the S&P 500 losing just under 2%. Risk appetite has returned over the weekend, with equity futures in both the US and Europe pointing higher, while Asian stock markets are rising. A statement from Trump that he wants to give diplomacy another chance (in the Middle East) is contributing to a decline in oil prices of almost USD 4 per barrel, reversing last week’s increase. Brent crude is now trading at just under USD 110 per barrel.
Despite the rise in oil prices, market expectations for central bank rate hikes declined last week. One reason may be that higher oil prices have not translated into higher petrol and diesel prices. On the contrary, petrol prices in particular have fallen. However, slightly less hawkish central banks and unchanged policy rates in October are probably more important explanations. The yield spread between France and Germany has started to widen again following the narrowing triggered by Moody’s decision to leave France’s credit rating unchanged, although it remains some way below its peak of 175 basis points.
There are several interesting data releases this week, but tomorrow’s US elections will be the main focus. A Democratic majority in the House of Representatives is widely expected, and according to Polymarket, there is also a high probability (just over 70%) that the Democrats will take control of the Senate. If the Democrats gain control of both chambers of Congress, Trump’s ability to implement his policies will be constrained, although he will retain considerable influence over trade, immigration and foreign policy. Moreover, the president can veto almost any legislation that does not have the support of two-thirds of members in both the House and the Senate. It is not unusual for presidents to lose control of Congress in midterm elections, and the US always manages to keep functioning despite often substantial political disagreements. Friday’s US labour market report and Norges Bank’s policy rate decision are other highlights this week.
We will continue publishing Nordic Outlook Updates throughout the week , with updated forecasts for individual countries. Today, it is the turn of the euro area and the UK. You can find these and much more on our Research page .
Nordic key stories
Growth in Sweden remained strong in the third quarter , at least according to the not always reliable flash GDP estimate. Strong growth is also supported by several other indicators, and we believe that GDP growth could be revised up slightly when the more comprehensive figures are published on 27 November. However, a sharp decline in household confidence in last week’s NIER survey is a warning signal, and the risks to our optimistic growth forecast are clearly tilted to the downside. Energy prices are expected to rise significantly over the next 3–4 months, while the Riksbank’s rate hikes will quickly put additional pressure on many highly indebted households. There is a significant risk that consumer confidence will continue to deteriorate and consumption will slow. SEB’s Housing Price Indicator, released this morning, fell by 5 index points to 38. This is a relatively modest decline by historical standards, and the level still suggests that house prices will continue to rise. However, there is also a significant risk that the indicator will decline further in the coming months. Read more here .
We expect Swedish CPIF inflation excluding energy to slow to 0.4% year-on-year in October (from 0.5%), slightly below the consensus estimate. Relatively warm weather in October caused electricity prices to fall somewhat, and we expect energy prices to have increased only modestly during the month, contributing to a decline in headline CPIF inflation to 1.4% from 1.5%. However, electricity prices are expected to rise significantly in November and December, while a normalisation of taxes will push fuel prices up by 15% in December. As a result, CPIF inflation looks set to reach 2.7% year-on-year in December. Read more about our expectations ahead of Thursday’s flash estimate here.
Almost everyone expects the Riksbank to raise its policy rate on Wednesday , and the most interesting aspect will probably be what the Executive Board says about the outlook. We expect the message to be that the September rate path, which signals just under two additional hikes next year, remains valid. However, our rate survey shows that opinions are divided, with half of respondents expecting the Riksbank to signal that upside risks have increased. Read more about our expectations here and about the interest rate survey here . DI’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee also favours a rate hike in November but recommends proceeding cautiously thereafter. Read more here . (Swedish pay link).
Tomorrow, the Swedish Riksdag will vote on Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist as prime minister , but she is widely expected to lose the vote. For now, there appears to be no breakthrough in negotiations to form a new government.
Norges Bank is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% at its upcoming meeting. We expect the Bank to emphasise continued uncertainty surrounding underlying inflation and the risk that elevated external price pressures could slow disinflation. Nevertheless, we expect little new guidance on the policy outlook. As this is an interim meeting, no new forecasts will be published. More about Norges Bank here .
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/83034
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