Resume af teksten:
Olieprisen faldt under 100 dollar pr. tønde efter Irans udmelding om mulig åbning af Hormuzstrædet og tegn på dialog med USA.
Trump advarede Iran om total udslettelse uden en aftale, men sagde også, at en aftale kan vente til efter USA’s midtvejsvalg.
Trump underskrev en aftale om øget militær tilstedeværelse i Grønland og mødtes med Ukraines præsident Zelenskyj.
Trump og Kinas præsident Xi mødes torsdag, uden forventning om et gennembrud i handelskonflikten.
Rekordhøje dieselpriser har fået Trump og finansminister Bessent til at åbne for et muligt amerikansk eksportforbud.
Nasdaq nåede en ny rekord, mens brede amerikanske aktieindeks faldt svagt, og asiatiske markeder udviklede sig blandet.
September-PMI’er, en økonomisk opdatering fra OECD og norsk ledighedstal er blandt dagens nøgletal.
Flertallet i en undersøgelse forventer, at Riksbanken fastholder renten på 1,75 procent, men at der kommer mindst én forhøjelse inden årets udgang.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
Oil prices fell yesterday to below $100/barrel after Iran said it could open the Strait of Hormuz to traffic “within a week” if the US lifts the blockade, the announcement that Saudi Arabia is about to restart its East-West pipeline and Trump’s statements that a US delegation had a three-hour long and “very good” meeting with Iran. In his speech to the UN General Assembly, Trump warned of total annihilation of Iran if the country does not make a deal with the United States, but at the same time said that such an agreement could be delayed until after the US midterm elections, which does not point to any immediate escalation.
Yesterday, Trump also signed an agreement on an increased military presence in Greenland and met with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to discuss a possible agreement between Ukraine and Russia to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities. The world is now looking forward to the next global highlight; the summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi tomorrow, Thursday. The meeting is not expected to lead to a breakthrough in the trade conflict; China’s threat to restrict exports of critical minerals gives it a strong negotiating position and limits the scope for the US to push for concessions via tariffs. The fact that Xi is not expected to be accompanied by a large business delegation makes it less likely that the countries would announce new major business deals. Otherwise, discussions on AI are expected to be high on the agenda.
Record-high diesel prices have prompted US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trump to open the door to a possible export ban. The US currently has a surplus of diesel, but the oil industry warns that this will stop if the administration completely or partially stops the ability to sell to the rest of the world, which would mean only a temporary price relief in the US but further upside pressure in the rest of the world.
The Nasdaq put the recent AI worries behind it with a new price record for the first time since June, while broad US indices fell slightly. The Stockholm stock exchange rose while the krona – after a volatile day – cautiously strengthened against the euro. Norwegian equities followed the oil prices lower while the EUR/NOK traded higher. Asian stock markets are mixed; up in Korea but down in China. Japan remains closed for holidays. US and European stock market futures are rising slightly.
The September PMI will be the highlight of the day. The business sector has been unexpectedly resilient to the conflict in the Middle East, and composite indices for industry and services are at expansionary levels in both the euro area and the US. The question is what effects the renewed rise in energy prices in recent weeks will have on sentiment and prices. The OECD will release an economic update at 10:00 a.m. Norwegian unemployment will be the last piece of data ahead of tomorrow’s unusually uncertain rate decision by Norges Bank.
Recommended reading: SEB’s revised policy rate forecasts. We summarize SEB’s views on central banks, long-term interest rates and currencies after the recent rise in energy prices and the increased concern about more persistent inflationary effects. Read more here .
Nordic key stories
SEB’s Trading Room survey: The vast majority believe that the Riksbank will leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.75% tomorrow , but a majority believe in at least one hike before the end of the year. However, market reactions are expected to be surprisingly small, regardless of whether the Riksbank chooses to be clearly hawkish and signal at least one hike until the end of the year, or whether it chooses to signal a 60 per cent probability of a hike over the next three meetings, in line with SEB’s main scenario. The latter would mean that the repo rate path ends up far below prevailing market pricing, which currently indicates that the policy rate will be 2.08 per cent in December. Read more here .
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/80941
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