Resume af teksten:
Nye amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsdata øgede sandsynligheden for en renteforhøjelse fra Fed 16. september til 60 %.
S&P 500 faldt 0,4 %, Nasdaq faldt 0,3 %, og VIX-indekset lukkede i 14,5.
Den amerikanske CPI-rapport offentliggøres fredag, og kerneinflationen ventes at være 2,4 % i august.
Brentolie handles omkring 97 dollar, mens europæiske gaspriser ligger omkring 72 euro pr. MWh.
Trump kræver, at den amerikanske rente sænkes til 1 % eller lavere.
AfD fik 43,8 % af stemmerne ved delstatsvalget i Sachsen-Anhalt, men ikke absolut flertal.
USA’s udsendinge Witkoff og Kushner mødtes med både Putin og Zelenskyj i weekenden.
Svensk kerneinflation uden energi ventes at stige til 0,7 % i august fra 0,6 % i juli.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The CPI print stressing Trump, the Fed and resilient equity markets – conclusions. Fresh evidence of the continued strength of the US labour market helped lift the probability of a Fed rate hike on 16 September to 60%. US equities held up well and closed only slightly lower ahead of the US long weekend : S&P 500 -0.4% and Nasdaq -0.3% . Meanwhile – in a somewhat confusing Truth Social post – Trump is once again increasing political pressure on the Fed, demanding that rates be cut to 1% or lower . This risks further undermining confidence in US Treasuries (see below). The VIX volatility index closed at 14.5 on Friday – still signalling a relatively low level of stress for September. On Friday, the new US CPI report will be released and, according to several Fed officials, could prove decisive for whether rates are raised next week. If we and the market are right, core CPI inflation should come in at 2.4% in August. That is broadly consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target measured by PCE. Meanwhile, energy markets continue to feed inflation concerns: Brent crude is trading around USD 97 (+33% since 27 February), while European gas prices are around EUR 72/MWh (+125%). Asian equity markets are trading cautiously, with a positive undertone; the Nikkei stands out, up 2.4%.
Political massage of the US bond market with meagre results – conclusions. There is little doubt that Trump and US Treasury Secretary Bessent are now under pressure from rising interest rates and fuel prices. At the same time, Trump is playing down the scale of the Iran war : “I call it a military conflict because it is small potatoes for us,” he said on Friday. The fact that Trump appears to be losing patience with the Fed is an ominous sign of the times. The White House is also downplaying the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund’s proposal to reduce its holdings of US Treasuries , while central banks are moving gold out of places including New York . Bessent expects an “oil price of USD 40 when we get to the other side of the Iran conflict”, which he argues would also push US yields lower. But the fact remains : competition for global savings is intensifying. And fresh signs of geofinancial fragmentation are not favourable for a country like the US, which in 2026–2030 needs to attract a total of USD 2.75 trillion in foreign capital to cover both private and public financing needs.
German state election confirms political fragmentation – reflections. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a seismic 43.8% of the votes in yesterday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt , but fell short of an outright majority. However, the door is still not completely closed to the party taking control of the state government. AfD’s success is not simply part of a broader shift to the right. It is also being driven by concerns over migration, economic and regional frustration, and a sharp decline in trust in the established parties. If these factors persist, AfD could continue to reshape German politics even without entering the federal government. A stronger AfD will increase pressure on the government in Berlin, not least on migration, climate/energy and fiscal policy. AfD’s more Russia-friendly stance and opposition to continued support for Ukraine could also complicate Germany’s and Europe’s security and Ukraine policy.
US duo has visited Moscow and Kyiv. US special envoys Witkoff and Kushner met both Putin and Zelenskyy over the weekend. Few details of the talks have been made public, but the White House says that concrete plans have been discussed and that further details are expected in the coming weeks . Zelenskyy described the talks as “very substantive”. At the same time, however, he said that much suggests the war will continue through yet another winter .
Nordic key stories
New Swedish flash CPI could determine timing of Riksbank rate hike – conclusions. August inflation – due at 08.00 – is expected to show a marginal rise in core inflation ( CPIF excluding energy ) to 0.7% , from 0.6% in July. Political decisions and seasonal effects are clouding the picture of underlying inflation pressure; adjusted for the “policy effect”, inflation is expected to be 1.6% in August, i.e. still below the inflation target. Forward-looking indicators, such as companies’ pricing plans, remain close to normal levels. But possible rate hikes from the ECB, Bank of Japan and Fed are putting additional pressure on an already weak Swedish krona. Energy and food prices pose upside risks at the same time as the economy is strengthening. Three questions matter for borrowers: (1) when will the first Riksbank hike come, (2) how much can rates rise from here, and (3) what happens to long-term yields , which are largely driven by global developments?
“Deeply concerned about a change of Swedish government.” Jacob Wallenberg, chairman of the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise and Investor, says in an FT interview ( paywall link ): “The opposition has pointed to greater state involvement, higher taxes in a number of areas, and also a discussion about working fewer hours. I am deeply concerned about these issues,” Wallenberg says.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/80517
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