Resume af teksten:
Globale aktiemarkeder er presset af tre faktorer: Hormuz-krisen, usikkerhed om pengepolitik og en bølge af kvartalsresultater, herunder AI-nyheder. Trods dette viser den globale økonomi robusthed, og faldende amerikansk inflation har ført til stigende aktiekurser, med S&P 500 op 0,4% og Nasdaq 0,9%. I mellemtiden har amerikanske banker rapporteret stærke resultater. I Asien følger aktiemarkederne de amerikanske tendenser opad. I oliemarkedet handles Brent-råolie til 85,6 USD pr. tønde, efter en 10% stigning på en uge. På den anden side faldt IBM-aktier med 25% efter en profitadvarsel.
Politisk er situationen omkring Iran bekymringsvækkende med USA’s tilbagekaldte trusler om gebyrer og genindførte blokader af iranske havne. I Norge er inflationen lavere end forventet, hvilket kan lindre presset på Norges Bank. Svensk inflation viste sig højere end forventet, hvilket kan påvirke Riksbankens politik. Analytikere forventer stærke overskud fra SEB og Handelsbanken i næste kvartalsrapport.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
Three stress factors for equity markets – conclusions. Global risk appetite is being weighed down by (1) the return of the Strait of Hormuz crisis , (2) increased uncertainty surrounding monetary policy , more on this below, and (3) the flood of quarterly earnings reports , including AI-related news . On the other hand, the global economy continues to display impressive resilience . Strong productivity growth, for example in the US, may also help justify elevated equity valuations. US CPI inflation slowed more sharply than expected , pushing interest rates lower and equities higher: the S&P 500 rose by 0.4% and the Nasdaq by 0.9%. The major US banks have reported strong quarterly results. Asian equity markets are following Wall Street higher on Wednesday morning and are broadly trading in positive territory. At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading at USD 85.6 per barrel, up 10% over the past week. IBM shares plunged by a historic 25% yesterday following a profit warning.
The Iran war – the situation remains serious. President Trump has now reversed course and withdrawn his threat to impose a 20% fee on goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He has also reimposed the blockade of Iranian ports, an effective tool for undermining Iran’s economy. The positions remain entrenched. The fundamental fact remains that the economic, financial, political and resource costs of further escalating the war are disproportionately high for both the US and Iran. The good news is that Trump’s actions indicate that he wants to end the war. The bad news is that he lacks a plan. Recommended reading: “A Misguided War, a Flawed Deal, and a Dangerous Future” (Atlantic Council).
Modernising the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy framework – conclusions. As expected, the Fed’s new Chair, Kevin Warsh, refrained from providing guidance on the near-term monetary policy outlook during yesterday’s congressional hearing. Instead, he focused on the five working groups tasked with “modernising” Fed policy. Their composition gives the project impressive weight and breadth. The changes may be implemented against a shifting economic backdrop, in a world shaped by war and Trump. Recommended reading: a new column in Affärsvärlden (in Swedish), “The Fed renovates its policy workshop” .
China’s slowdown puts pressure on the EU – reflections. GDP growth slowed to 4.2% in the second quarter , from 5.0% in the first, compared with Beijing’s 2026 target of 4.5–5.0%. The headline figure conceals a clear divergence: state-supported industry is driving growth, while weak private consumption is holding the economy back. As the domestic market fails to absorb production, export pressure on Europe and other markets is increasing. The EU and China have set October as a deadline for progress in their critical discussions on economic imbalances. The EU’s trade deficit with China amounted to almost EUR 360bn in 2025. Brussels’ strength lies in its market of 450 million consumers; Beijing’s lies in its technological leadership and strategic dominance of rare earth minerals. This is also a battle over the industrial value chains of the future. The current situation is unsustainable over the longer term, with currently few concrete solutions on the table.
Nordic key stories
A turning point at last? Norwegian inflation delivered a substantial downside surprise on Friday . Headline CPI inflation fell to 2.7% in June, well below Norges Bank’s forecast of 3.2%. Due to technical problems , the details of core inflation, CPI-ATE, were postponed until today at 08:00 CET. We forecast that core inflation declined to 2.9%, compared with Norges Bank’s projection of 3.3%. Norwegian price movements are volatile, however, and individual monthly readings do not determine the interest-rate outlook. Even so, the June inflation figures reduce the pressure on Norges Bank. We still expect the policy rate to be raised from the current 4.25% to 4.50% alongside the new Monetary Policy Report on 24 September. Both we and the market expect rate cuts during 2027. Monetary policy is already clearly restrictive. Norges Bank estimates the long-term neutral interest rate at around 3%.
The inflation outlook for 2026: encouraging and far from hopeless – conclusion. Sweden’s flash CPI reading for June was a contained disappointment . CPIF excluding energy came in at 0.4%, one tenth above our forecast. The outcome is expected to be confirmed when the final data are released today at 08:00 CET. At the same time, companies report significant difficulties in raising prices for both consumers and other businesses. This reduces the inflation risks stemming from both the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the weaker krona. Supported by higher global interest rates, markets are now pricing in a Riksbank policy rate of 2.00% at year-end. Monetary policy would then be marginally accommodative, assuming a neutral rate of around 2.25%. Attention should, however, turn to the general election in September. Permanent departures from the fiscal policy framework, as currently appear likely in 2026–2030, could force the Riksbank to keep interest rates higher. Our advice to the next parliament: invest, but exercise caution with consumption-driven fiscal policy.
Always keep an eye on SEB. An Infront consensus compilation shows that analysts expect SEB to report an operating profit of SEK 9,734m for the second quarter of 2026. The report is expected at around 06:30 CET. For our colleagues at Handelsbanken, the corresponding consensus estimate is SEK 7,010m ahead of its report at 07:00 CET.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/78428
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