“TTF has surged to ~EUR 40/MWh as winter risk, global LNG tightening and U.S. gas strength reassert themselves, reminding the market how fast complacency can fade. European natural gas prices, denoted by the EU TTF, have spiked as winter risk resurfaces. A price climb I have been waiting for, yet larger than anticipated. Since, 9 January, the EU TTF frontmonth has climbed by more than EUR 12.5/MWh to the current strong EUR 40/MWh (+ 45%). This marks a sharp reversal from the very soft levels seen at the turn of the year. The move reflects a mix of weather-driven risk repricing, tightening global gas sentiment, and spillover from a massive rally in U.S. natural gas, rather than any single structural shock. The immediate trigger has been weather. After an unusually mild start to the heating season, forecasts have shifted colder for late January and into early February (especially at the US East Coast), reducing complacency around storage drawdowns. With European inventories already running well below seasonal norms (-13% compared to 2016-2025 avg.), the market has been forced to reintroduce winter risk at the front of the curve.”
Morten W. Langer
