Resume af teksten:
USA har natten over angrebet Iran, mens Iran har sendt missiler og droner mod amerikanske baser i Kuwait og Irak. Præsident Trumps udtalelser skabte i går usikkerhed med trusler om nye angreb, men indikerede også, at konflikten måske ikke vil eskalere yderligere. Dette førte til en delvis stabilisering på aktiemarkederne. S&P 500 lukkede med et fald på 0,3 procent, mens asiatiske aktier generelt var blandede.
Trafikken i Hormuzstrædet er stoppet, men der er håb om fortsatte forhandlinger, da ingen nye angreb på fragtskibe er rapporteret. Oliepriserne faldt først og steg derefter svagt igen. I Europa steg renten med omkring 10 basispoint, mens forventningerne til ECB og Riksbankens rentestigninger ved årets udgang steg marginalt.
I Sverige faldt inflationen i juni, men var stadig højere end forventet. Riksbankens inflationsmål nås ikke helt, på trods af nogle midlertidige lettelser i f.eks. brændstofafgifter. Statistik fra Sverige viser stærk vækst i maj, hvilket støtter en optimistisk vækstprognose. Denne vækst kan påvirke renten i fremtiden, men en svag arbejdsmarkedssituation kan dæmpe denne effekt.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The US has attacked Iran again during the night , while Iran has sent missiles and drones against American bases in Kuwait and Iraq. Continued, partly contradictory statements from Trump dominated the news flow yesterday, with threats of new attacks and blockades. However, after Trump indicated that he did not believe the conflict would escalate further, stock markets recovered from much of the previous falls, while interest rates fell back by a couple of basis points. The S&P 500 closed at -0.3 percent, which was just under 1 percent higher than at the European close. US stock market futures are pointing slightly upwards, while European futures are up 0.5-1.0 percent. Stock markets in Asia are mixed, but the Nikkei is up just under 2 percent.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is reported to have come to a standstill , which makes the market stabilization feel somewhat contradictory. The fact that the conflict has not escalated further, and that more cargo ships in the strait do not appear to have been attacked, may possibly contribute to hopes that the negotiations will continue after all. Oil prices also fell back a couple of dollars during the evening, with Brent at around $79 per barrel, but have turned up slightly again overnight. Prices have risen clearly compared to last week, but the level is still significantly lower than at the end of May, when Brent was trading around $95 per barrel.
Interest rates in Europe rose by about 10 basis points yesterday , a relatively large increase in relation to stock market movements. Interest rates in many countries are now approaching their peak levels from May. Expectations of central banks also rose clearly, although market pricing for the ECB and the Riksbank at the end of the year is still about 25 basis points lower than it was at the end of April. The market now expects the ECB to raise interest rates by around 35 basis points this year, while the corresponding expectation for the Riksbank is 17 basis points. Expectations of the Riksbank and the ECB rose by about the same amount yesterday, and the situation in the Middle East is probably a much more important explanation for the rise in Sweden than the somewhat unexpectedly high June inflation published yesterday. US yields fell back a couple of points yesterday evening and have been stable overnight. Both CPI and core inflation in China fell to 1.0 percent in June, which was 0.1-0.2 percentage points lower than in May.
The Fed’s interest rate announcement in June was interpreted as hawkish. According to the dot plotters, half of the members forecast one or more hikes this year, while just as many expected an unchanged interest rate and one member expected a cut. The minutes confirmed that concerns about inflation have increased, while growth and the labour market continue to improve. In addition, some members seem to have considered raising the interest rate as early as June, even though the decision to leave the interest rate unchanged was unanimous. The meeting was Kevin Warsh’s first, and the fact that the new Fed governor did not want to put his own interest rate forecast in the dot plot highlights the major changes he is expected to try to implement at the Fed. a broader focus on inflation with less emphasis on PCE and an unambiguous inflation target, a smaller balance sheet and an analysis of whether high productivity can help keep inflation down will be investigated by various working groups. Our forecast of two rate cuts in 2027 thus has some headwinds at present, and the market is pricing in an interest rate in December this year that is 36 basis points higher than our forecast. However, expectations fell back by a couple of points after the minutes were presented.
Nordic key stories
Inflation fell in June but was higher than expected for the second month in a row , although the difference from our forecast for CPIF excluding energy was very small, 0.03 percentage points. The annual rate fell to 0.4 per cent from 0.5 per cent in May. However, the seasonally adjusted monthly change was above the inflation target for the second month in a row, and high service prices may worry the Executive Board of the Riksbank. Core inflation was just under two tenths higher than the Riksbank’s forecast, but is still a couple of tenths lower than the forecast in the March Monetary Policy Report and far below the target, also corrected for the VAT cut in April. According to this measure, core inflation was 1.2 per cent. Reduced taxes on fuel and a temporary subsidy for local transport will significantly lower the inflation rate in July, but the underlying inflation trend is upward, driven by a combination of higher international prices and easing downward pressure from the exchange rate. The CPIF excluding energy is expected to be slightly above the target at the beginning of next year. Read more here.
Strong growth data. Statistics Sweden’s GDP indicator increased at a significantly faster pace than expected in May, and the increase in April and May is as much as 2 percent compared with the first quarter. This development supports our slightly more optimistic growth forecast for 2026, 2.6 per cent compared with the Riksbank’s 2.2 per cent. So do the continued gains in the PMI and the National Institute of Economic Research’s barometer. The GDP indicator is not very accurate and the outlook for household consumption remains uncertain, but the growth outlook for Sweden still looks good, especially compared with Europe. A stronger recovery could be an important factor for interest rates in 2027, but a continued weak labour market does not suggest that the economy will be an important driver as early as this year. Read more here .
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/78153
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