Resume af teksten:
AI-virksomhederne CoreWeave og Super Micro rapporterer stærke resultater, hvilket styrker tech-sektoren. Amerikanske tech-futures og asiatiske aktiemarkeder stiger. Europæiske aktiemarkeder handlede blandet i går. De seneste rentestigninger i USA og Europa blev delvist vendt tirsdag. Den amerikanske tiårige statsobligationsrente er steget med over 50 basispoint i år og handles omkring 4,69%, et af de højeste niveauer siden 2007. Yenen nærmer sig 160 mod dollaren, hvilket kan kræve intervention. Olipriserne er steget i seks dage til lige under $90 pr. tønde. Den stigende oliepris presser den svenske krone, der er svækket mod euroen. Amerikansk inflationstal publiceres kl. 14:30 (CET), med forventninger om en stigning i kerneinflationen på 0,2% i juli måned. Norsk forbrugertillid er faldet, mens svensk forbrug ventes at stige i juni. Sveriges NIER har hævet vækstprognosen for BNP til 2,4% for i år.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
Strong reports from AI companies CoreWeave and Super Micro seem to breathe new life into the pressured tech sector. US tech futures are pointing upwards and Asian stock markets are rising. European stock markets were trading mixed yesterday.
At the same time, a large part of Monday’s interest rate rises in the US and Europe were reversed on Tuesday, and US yields have traded stable during the morning. The US ten-year yield has risen by more than 50 basis points since the beginning of the year and is now trading around 4.69% – one of the highest levels since 2007. This increases the pressure on the Trump administration and Treasury Secretary Bessent, who has designated the ten-year rate as his most important financial yardstick.
The yen is approaching 160 against the dollar, a level where further currency interventions may be necessary. To support the yen, Japan – the world’s largest holder of US Treasuries – needs to sell parts of its foreign exchange reserves, which risks pushing up US bond yields further. That explains the White House’s decision to participate in a Japanese currency intervention for the first time since 1998. Against this backdrop, today’s auction of ten-year Treasuries will provide an indication of the demand for US government bonds, in a time when budget deficits risk growing from already strained levels, not least as a result of the Iran war.
Oil prices are rising for the sixth day in a row to just below $90 per barrel, after Trump announced yesterday that the US will demand reparations from Iran as part of a possible future deal, dampening hopes that a deal is imminent. Pakistan’s overnight assurance that the US and Iran are close to “some kind of deal” has so far failed to convince the market.
The rising oil price is putting pressure on the Swedish krona , which continues to weaken after losing about three figures against the euro yesterday, and EUR/SEK is just shy of the 11-mark this morning. NOK/SEK broke above parity yesterday. For more details about the Scandies, see Sweden 360 and Norway 360 .
US inflation 2:30 p.m (CET). Core inflation is expected to have risen 0.2% m/m in July, which would push the annual rate to to the lowest rate (2.5%) since 2021. With inflation still slightly too high and with the slowdown in the labor market, the Fed’s path forward is far from a given – especially after new Fed Governor Warsh’s decision to refrain from guiding the market.
After last week’s weak jobs report, today’s inflation outcome could therefore have a major impact on market expectations. A lower figure would reduce rate hike expectations, while a surprisingly high figure would push up expectations of a rate hike as soon as September – a probability the market is pricing in at 50% at present.
Nordic key stories
Weak Norwegian confidence despite softer inflation. Norwegian consumer confidence fell further in Q2, and is expected to remain weak in Q3, as still-high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment – although softer inflation offers some relief.
Swedish household consumption is expected to pick up again in June. Household consumption has grown at a decent pace over the past year, but has started 2026 on a relatively weak footing. Since the VAT reduction on food in April, however, retail sales have increased sharply, which indicates an increase today.
Yesterday, the NIER raised its forecast for Swedish GDP growth to 2.4% this year from 2.2% previously and expects the recession to subside in 2027. At the same time, inflation, also excluding energy and tax changes, is expected to rise above 2% next year, and KI therefore expects the Riksbank to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points later this year and once more in 2027. Read the report here .
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/79607
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