“The Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% as expected, with one dissent from Stephen Miran in favor of a 25 bp cut. The statement was little changed, and the Fed is clearly unwilling at this stage to draw conclusions from the war with Iran. Fed members’ median projections signaled increased optimism about growth and slower disinflation, but still one cut this year and another in 2027 – though Powell suggested little conviction behind their current views. We stick to our forecast for three cuts in 2026 but risks are skewed to the upside, for fewer and delayed cuts. The development of the conflict and in the labour market will be key. Unchanged at 3.50-3.75% as expected. Keypoints: “Implications of developments in the Middle East are uncertain”. Policy remains “well positioned” with rate “in a plausible range of neutral.” Læs hele analysen her.
MWL
