Resume af teksten:
Den amerikanske centralbank, Fed, fastholdt renten uændret på 3,50-3,75%, hvilket var forudset af både analytikere og markedet. Warsh understregede, at inflationen vil vende tilbage til målet, og signalerede en høgeagtig retorik. Markedet reagerede med fald i kortsigtede renter, mens langssigtede renter steg, hvilket skyldtes usikkerhed om politikken. Dollaren svækkedes. Amerikanske aktiemarkeder oplevede et fald på 1,5-2% i går, påvirket af renteannonceringer fra Fed og bekymringer om AI. I Asien var aktiemarkederne blandede. Oliepriserne steg efter angreb i Iran, men faldt lidt igen. Bank of England forventes at holde renten uændret, mens markedet fortsat spekulerer i fremtidige renteforhøjelser. PCE-inflation og BNP-data fra USA samt inflations- og vækstrater fra euroområdet er i fokus. I Sverige blev der offentliggjort positive BNP-tal for andet kvartal, og i dag offentliggøres NIER-barometeret og detailsalgsdata.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
Fed: Hawkish Warsh, weaker USD and steeper yield curve. Last night, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged (3.50-3.75%), in line with our and consensus expectations, by a vote of 9-3. At the press conference, Warsh emphasized that inflation will return to target and the language at the press conference leans in the hawkish direction, but he did not give any information on how and when the Fed will act. Inflation that is too high in the starting situation and inflation risks from the war in Iran pose upside risks for the Fed and the pressure to raise interest rates may increase. The market reacted with lower short-term interest rates, September may be too early for a hike, but at the same time long-term interest rates rose (among other things, the 30-year yield rose to the highest level since 2007) as Warsh’s reluctance to guide the market increases uncertainty about policy. and the dollar weakened. Read more in Elisabet Kopelman’s comment here .
Broad decline on US stock exchanges. After a positive start to the trading day, the US stock markets fell yesterday by about 1.5-2%. Asian equites have had a mixed performance overnight, but mostly lower, as AI concerns are mixed with the Fed’s interest rate announcements. Chinese stock markets are falling, South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei are rising slightly. Futures ahead of today’s trading point slightly lower in Europe and slightly higher in the US. Oil prices rose yesterday after Iran’s latest “surprise attack” and when Trump, as usual with rich language, threatened with new attacks that were carried out during the night. After the night’s attacks, oil prices fell back slightly and are now just below USD 90/barrel (Brent). Today’s data calendar is long and interesting with, among other things, central bank announcements from the Bank of England as well as PCE/inflation and growth data from the US and the euro area. From Sweden we get the NIER barometer, retail trade and wages.
Unchanged for the Bank of England. We and consensus expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. The market is pricing in 1-2 interest rate hikes for the rest of this year, but when that will happen, according to market pricing, has once again been postponed.
Inflation and GDP data from several countries. From the US, we get, among other things, PCE inflation and GDP for the second quarter. According to the Atlanta-Fed’s GDP-now model, the growth rate is 1.6% and the Bloomberg consensus is at 2.0% (both quarterly growth at an annualized rate). Several euro area countries publish inflation and growth figures. For the euro area as a whole, GDP is expected to grow by a couple of tenths, an upshift after a weak first quarter; As usual, we don’t get much detail in this first publication.
Nordic key stories
Additional Swedish growth data and indicators: NIER barometer and retail trade. This week offers a lot of interesting Swedish growth data. Yesterday’s GDP statistics showed a substantial upshift in the second quarter, even slightly above our forecast, which was higher than both the Riksbank’s and consensus (our comment here ). Today, we get the NIER barometer and retail sales, among other things. Overall, sentiment has improved over the past 2-3 months and was above the historical average in June, despite weak consumer confidence. The latter, and the retail sector, should get a positive boost from lower taxes on food and energy. This month’s NIER barometer is the quarterly one with questions about labour shortages and capacity utilisation, particularly interesting given that the labour market situation has not improved in line with overall growth data.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/79198
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