Den kinesiske vækst faldt en anelse til 6 pct. i sidste kvartal 2019, og for hele året blev den på 6,1 pct. Trods stimuli og 1. del af handelsaftalen venter Handelsbanken dog et fortsat svagt fald i væksten i 2020.
Uddrag fra Handelsbanken:
GDP growth stabilised in Q4
GDP growth in China was stable in Q4 compared to Q3, at 6.0 percent y-o-y, in line with the consensus estimate. Thus, GDP growth has stabilised following a gradual decline in recent years. The stabilisation is likely a consequence of the authorities’ stimulus efforts to support growth, but also the recently signed phase one trade deal with the US. The deal removes some of the uncertainty that has dampened for instance firms’ willingness to invest, as the risk of Trump announcing a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports has receded. But even though the deal should ensure that no further tariffs are imposed, the majority of already-imposed tariffs will remain.
Monthly indicators confirm rebound
The growth stabilisation was further confirmed by the monthly activity data, which showed that the rebound in November continued in December. That indicates improved momentum into Q1. Growth of fixed investments measured in ordinary y-o-y terms jumped for the second month in a row, leaving the record low territory it reached early in autumn. Also, industrial production growth prolonged its rebound. This may partly, but not fully, be explained by the earlier timing of the Chinese New Year this year (only a little over a week from now), as factories may have ramped up production in December, ahead of the holidays.
Only temporary stabilisation
Despite the current growth stabilisation, we expect growth to continue to decelerate over the coming years because we expect further stimulus to be of measured magnitude only. We also note that despite the signing of the phase one trade deal, the underlying disagreements between the two parties in the trade conflict remain unresolved and trade uncertainties will likely remain.
