Commerzbank skriver, at den stærke euro giver modvind for europæisk og tysk økonomi næste år, ikke mindst eksportindustrien. Da euroen blev styrket betydeligt i 2017, slog det igennem på tysk økonomi de følgende to år.
Germany – Strong Euro provides headwinds
After having risen strongly in the previous two months, the Early Bird fell from 0.35 to 0.32 points in August despite a further improvement in the global economic environment.
The decisive factor here was the stronger euro, which threatens to create a noticeable headwind for the recovery of the German economy next year.
Our leading indicator for the German economy fell again somewhat in August. However, at 0.32 points it remains clearly in positive territory.
In fact, the global economic environment has improved further. This is because the decline in the manufacturing PMI for the eurozone excluding Germany was more than offset by a rise in the ISM index for the US.
However, this was not enough to offset the negative effect of the stronger euro. The euro again appreciated significantly, particularly against the US dollar and a number of emerging market currencies, thus continuing the upward trend of recent months.
The indicator for the price competitiveness of the German economy – the real external value of a fictitious Deutschmark – which we adjust for the effect of the temporary reduction in VAT [1], has risen by more than 3% since the
beginning of the year.
This means that the latest appreciation is now quite comparable with that in
2017 (chart). Thus, our leading indicator continues to signal above-average economic conditions for the German economy and thus supports the expectation of a further recovery.
However, there is an increasing risk of headwinds from the FX market next year. After all, the appreciation of 2017 was one of the reasons why the economy weakened noticeably in 2018 and 2019.
