Merrill vurderer, at den amerikanske centralbank har undervurderet den stærke produktivitetsvækst i amerikansk erhvervsliv. Bankens positive syn på USAs økonomi bygger i høj grad på produktivitetsudviklingen. Det betyder også, at centralbanken kan holde renten lav i meget lang tid.
U.S. Economy Continues To Prove More Resilient Than Expected
Our positive views about U.S. growth and the economy’s resilience to the pandemic
shock have also been shaped by our views about productivity and profit margins.
For example, we have long believed that the Fed’s policy mistakes in recent years have
been caused by its underestimation of the positive effects of pro-growth policies on
the productivity growth trend.
Indeed, the dynamism of the U.S. economy and relatively uninhibited creative destruction occurring in the search for productivity and profits in the face of strong competition, a slowing labor-force growth trend, and a decade of dollar appreciation to quite overvalued territory, appear to have boosted the long- term trend in productivity more than generally appreciated (Exhibit 1).
Automation, artificial intelligence, robotics and rising big-data capabilities are forces for stronger productivity growth and rising margins.
A shift from the very weak productivity trend of the “secularstagnation” period to a higher trend is very important because it would allow the economy to grow faster without inflation. This would allow the Fed to hold interest rates lower for longer, supporting profit margins. It is also important because it would keep unit labor costs from eroding margins any time soon.
