“In March 2024, we published a note outlining some core ideas on how investors should position for geopolitical shocks. Our main worries at the time were a Middle East conflict-related energy price shock, or a broader repricing of risk based on global fragmentation. In this note, we review how those recommendations have performed from publication to end-July 2025 and adjust our recommendations to reflect the different geopolitical risks we believe will prevail going forward. To recap, we had provided portfolio solutions which varied in complexity. On the one end of the spectrum, our proposed solutions included long energy/commodity volatility; long gold; and defensive equities. On the complex end of the spectrum, our solutions included renting broad equities; sovereign and corporate credit default swaps; FX hedging; and options hedging related to implied volatility.”
Morten W. Larsen
