Den svenske arbejdsløshed stiger fortsat, og den er nu på knap 7 pct., og huspriserne steg sidste år med 5 pct., viser de seneste tal.
Uddrag fra Handelsbanken:
Week ahead: House prices continue to rise, despite unemployment picking up
Housing prices expected to increase in line with inflation this year
On Monday, the HOX housing price index figure for December is due to be released. The Swedish housing market has recovered from its downturn in 2017. Housing prices have risen by almost 5 percent over the past year. We expect the positive trend to have continued in December, even though the monthly figure (not seasonally adjusted) is expected to be negative, as is usual for this month of the year. This year, the impending weaker economy and rising unemployment will subdue the price trend. On the other hand, interest rates are expected to remain low and the housing shortage will continue. All told, we expect house prices to increase in line with the inflation rate (around 2 percent) during 2020 and 2021.Unemployment volatile, but trending upwards
On Thursday, the December Labour Force Survey (LFS) will be released. The LFS is currently much more uncertain than usual, as Statistics Sweden has been forced to throw away half of the survey sample (i.e. the volatility in the statistics has risen). But both the LFS and the Swedish Public Employment Service statistics show that the labour market has slowed in the past year, with unemployment trending upwards and a less steep rise in employment. In addition to a cooling economy, most leading indicators suggest that unemployment will keep trending upwards. For December, we expect the unemployment trend to have risen to just under 7.0 percent and we forecast seasonally adjusted unemployment falling to 7.0 percent, but the uncertainty bands are huge right now.
On Thursday, the December Labour Force Survey (LFS) will be released. The LFS is currently much more uncertain than usual, as Statistics Sweden has been forced to throw away half of the survey sample (i.e. the volatility in the statistics has risen). But both the LFS and the Swedish Public Employment Service statistics show that the labour market has slowed in the past year, with unemployment trending upwards and a less steep rise in employment. In addition to a cooling economy, most leading indicators suggest that unemployment will keep trending upwards. For December, we expect the unemployment trend to have risen to just under 7.0 percent and we forecast seasonally adjusted unemployment falling to 7.0 percent, but the uncertainty bands are huge right now.
Unemployment is on the rise