Sverige, der er gået egne veje under coronakrisen, oplever en stærk økonomisk fremgang. Den økonomiske vækst i juli var stærkere end forventet, skriver Nordea, og i tredje kvartal ventes en vækst på 5 pct. Også det vil være stærkere end forventet af Nordea, der vurderer et fald i økonomien på 3,5 pct. for hele året – en tak bedre end i flere lande. Den gode fremgang betyder, at der ikke er udsigt til nye statslige stimuli.
Sweden: GDP in July – bouncing back!
The monthly GDP indicator suggests that the Swedish economy is recovering much faster than expected.
Statistics Sweden’s monthly indicator for GDP stood at +3.2% m/m and declined by only -4.1% y/y in July.
The previous month was revised upwards, and the recovery has come a long way already in July.
Even if the GDP-indicator is unchanged in August and September (which is unlikely, it will most likely rise), GDP will still increase by around 5% q/q in Q3. This is stronger than our relatively optimistic forecast of GDP declining by 3.5% for the full year 2020 (Riksbank -4.8% and the government -4.9%).
All in all, the economy is bouncing back and recovers much faster than generally expected.
The situation on the labour market has turned for the better and the housing market is heating up again.
This has implication for economic policy. Any additional measures to “kick-start” the economy is not necessary, and the Riksbank’s buying of covered bonds should be questioned.
Read more in the Economic Outlook “Bouncing back” from the 2 September.
