Sverige har lagt krisepolitikken til side og tager fat på en mere traditionel finanspolitik. Budgettet for 2021 er dog det største i moderne tid. Regeringen venter, at budgettet med store skattereduktioner vil stimulere væksten med 2,3 pct. næste år, mens Handelsbanken dog kun tror på 1,3 pct., fordi skattereduktionerne først slår igennem året efter.
Uddrag fra Handelsbanken:
From crisis policy to more traditional stimulus policy
• Fiscal policy moves from crisis to more traditional stimulus mode
• Fiscal stimulus will boost economic recovery
• Budget targets temporarily on hold, but smaller deficit than expected
Fiscal policy moves from crisis to more traditional stimulus mode
The budget for 2021, which is the result of a compromise between the government coalition, the Centre Party and the Liberal Party, is the largest in modern times.
Fiscal stimulus of SEK 105 billion (2 percent of GDP) can be compared with fiscal stimulus of around 0.5 percent of GDP in a typical budget bill and just under 1 percent of GDP during the financial crisis.
After 10 extra amended “crisis” budgets, the government now moves from crisis policy to more traditional stimulus policy. The budget bill contains tax cuts for households and business, state aid to municipalities and regions and green (public) investment.
It is clear that the four parties involved have been given space for their high-profile issues and many reforms are permanent. However, a significant part of the reforms are temporary stimulus measures (i.e. reduced social security contributions and tax reduction for investments).Fiscal stimulus will boost economic recovery, but not inflation
Although economic activity has picked up in recent months, the economy will still be in a particularly deep downturn next year. Expansionary fiscal policy will therefore support the recovery.
Especially when the central bank’s policy rate is at its effective lower bound and public debt is low, research shows that fiscal stimuli, particularly in public investment and consumption, can have major positive effects on growth and employment.
According to the government, the fiscal stimulus in the budget will contribute to growth being around 2.3 p.p. higher next year and unemployment just over 1.3 p.p. lower.
We estimate that the positive growth effects will be smaller (around 1 p.p. higher growth next year). The pandemic will likely continue to dampen consumption next year (household saving higher than normal).
The stimulating effects of the tax cuts will mainly impact 2022 and the utilisation rate for many expenditure reforms will be far from 100 percent. The boost to inflation seems to be limited, as lower costs for companies (particularly reduced social security contributions for young people) dampen underlying inflationary pressure.Budget targets temporarily on hold, but smaller deficit than expected
The government deficit has increased rapidly, but the deterioration has not been as serious as expected. In its latest forecast, ESV has revised down the borrowing requirement by as much as SEK 150 billion for this year, compared with the assessment in June.
The fall in GDP is smaller than expected and crisis-response measures have not been used as much as previously estimated. As a result, government debt is expected to rise to “only” slightly over 40 percent of GDP this year and remain at about the same level next year. We expect that there will be some additional fiscal stimulus in 2022, but the budget targets (surplus targets and debt anchors) will gradually resume their role as a guiding principle for fiscal policy.
