Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Formue

Sydkorea i recession? Nye risici i Asien

Hugo Gaarden

mandag 20. juli 2020 kl. 9:00

Asia week ahead: Who’s next to fall into a recession?

Korea’s 2Q GDP figure will be the highlight of next week in Asia alongside all the inflation, manufacturing and trade releases in a jammed-pack week ahead

Will Korea be next to fall into a recession?

China might have technically averted a recession, despite falling retail sales and fixed-asset investment but Singapore wasn’t as lucky as it plunged into its worst-ever recession this week.

Korea seems to be next in line as it reports 2Q GDP next week. Exports, imports, manufacturing and services output – everything was falling in the last quarter, while the second wave of Covid-19 outbreak kept confidence close to a record low.

Our house view of a 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) GDP contraction follows a 1.3% fall in 1Q which should confirm a technical recession, marking the first recession since the SARS pandemic in 2003, and it’s likely to be worse. Hopefully, it will also mark the bottom of the current downturn.

Heavy data calendar elsewhere

Inflation, manufacturing, and trade releases for June dominate the data flow – all reflecting weak demand and falling GDP in the region.

CPI inflation has been nil to negative in Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore, as has Korea’s PPI inflation. The export contraction is running in double digits in Japan and Thailand. And, weak exports and domestic demand are weighing on manufacturing in Singapore and Taiwan, although both countries have thus far been relatively unscathed by weaknesses so far this year, with Singapore supported by pharmaceuticals and Taiwan by electronics exports.

Their June manufacturing data will help to fine-tune GDP forecast for 2Q. In the case of Singapore, it will show the extent of a likely revision in the -12.6% YoY advance estimate of 2Q GDP growth released this week.

A slow central bank week

Nothing much is going on next week in terms of macro policymaking aside from the monthly adjustment by the People’s Bank of China to its prime lending rates.

Both 1-year and 5-year PLRs have been steady at 3.85% and 4.65% respectively since 10-20 basis point cuts in April.

We expect these levels to hold next week.

Asia Economic Calendar

ING, Bloomberg, *GMT
ING, Bloomberg, *GMT
Tags

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Formuerådgiver
Formuerådgiver
Midt- og Nordjylland
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Afdelingsdirektør for forretningsudvikling Private Banking
Private Banking
Aabenraa
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Formuerådgiver
Formuerådgiver
Region hovedstaden og Sjælland
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Forretningsudvikler til Pension og Formue
Pension, Formue
Aabenraa
Generalsekretær i Folkekirkens Nødhjælp
Region Hovedstaden
ØKONOMIMEDARBEJDER – Carlsbergfondet
Region Hovedstaden
Regnskabsassistent til Pharma Nord
Region Syddanmark
Kontorchef for økonomi, analyse og kunder i Færdselsstyrelsen
Region H
DIGITALISERINGSCHEF – Muskelsvindfonden
Region H
Direktionskonsulent med flair for økonomi og udviklingsprojekter
Region Sjælland

Mere fra ØU Formue

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank