Resume af teksten:
Sydkoreas inflation steg til 2,1% i september fra 1,7% i august, primært på grund af ophøret af rabatter på mobiltjenester. Priser på kommunikation steg, mens fødevarepriserne også blev påvirket før Chuseok-højtiden, selvom oliepriserne faldt. På trods af inflationens stigning er der ikke forventet markante ændringer i Sydkoreas centralbanks politiske tilgang. Eksporten er svækket, hvilket underbygger behovet for mulige rentenedsættelser, men stigende boligpriser i Seoul kunne udsætte dem til november. Centralbanken forventes at prioritere økonomisk vækst ved eventuelt at lette pengepolitikken, mens regeringen muligvis strammer boligmarkedstiltag.
Fra ING:
South Korea’s inflation remained around 2% and exports weakened quite dramatically in September, supporting the argument for rate cuts. However, a renewed rise in property prices in Seoul could delay the timing
Consumer price inflation
Monthly rise narrowly concentrated in communications fees
Consumer price inflation rose to 2.1% year-on-year in September from 1.7% in August, broadly in line with market consensus. The rebound was primarily attributed to the end of one-off mobile service charge discounts. Communications prices rose 0.1% following a 13.3% drop in August.
Also, ahead of the early October Chuseok holiday, vegetable and meat prices rose, while oil prices fell thanks to lower global commodity prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also jumped to 2.0% (vs 1.3% in August). Yet today’s inflation data is not likely to prompt any material change in the Bank of Korea’s policy easing stance.
Inflation rebounded but underlying pressures remained soft
Source: CEIC
BoK watch
We still expect the BoK to cut rates by 25 basis points in October, although rising house prices could push this back to November. We believe that the recent weakness of exports and economic activity points to the need for looser monetary policy. Regarding housing prices, the BoK will rely on government measures, which are likely to be tightened in order to stabilise the housing market. Therefore, the BoK will prioritise supporting growth.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
