Resume af teksten:
Den amerikanske centralbank (Fed) er blevet mindre bekymret over jobmarkedet, men ny data indikerer, at denne holdning kan være for tidlig. Vigtige lønstatistikker næste uge kan spille en afgørende rolle. Jobvæksten er faldet, med privat ansættelse dramatisk bremset, og kommende benchmark-revisioner kan sænke beskæftigelsestallene yderligere. Ansættelsesrater forbliver lave, mens opsigelser også er få. Jobåbninger er faldet markant, mens arbejdsløsheden stiger. Særligt bekymrende er stigningen i jobnedskæringer, især inden for sundhedsvæsenet. Forbrugerundersøgelser viser en forventning om stigende arbejdsløshed. Samtidig presses arbejdsudbuddet, delvis på grund af halveret indvandring. AI’s rolle i dette billede diskuteres stadig, da det forklarer under 10% af arbejdsmarkedsændringerne ifølge visse udtalelser.
Fra ING:
The Fed is becoming more relaxed about the US jobs market. Yet data this week makes that look complacent. And payroll numbers next week will be key. So what’s going on beneath the surface? James Smith tells the story in 10 charts as we enter another week dominated by American economic data
Hiring rates in the US are low – much lower than pre-pandemic
America’s job market puzzle in 10 charts
Has the Fed got it all wrong when it comes to the US jobs market?
Nine days ago , current Fed Chair Jerome Powell channelled his inner Christine Lagarde and told us that policy was in a good place. Growth is solid. The jobs market is basically fine, if uncertain.
I mulled what could change all that in last week’s missive. And it didn’t take long for us to get an answer.
Fresh turbulence in the AI and software world raises new questions about how long US exceptionalism – contingent on AI-related investment and high-income consumers benefiting from rising stock prices – can last.
That angst was added to by weak-looking jobs figures. Swap rates – a gauge of Fed expectations – are down 12 basis-points since the Fed decision – or put another way, half an extra rate cut has been priced in. A June cut is now fully priced; April is 50:50.
For now, that might have gone as far as it needs to, economically speaking, anyway. James Knightley, our US economist, reckons it would still probably take some particularly iffy jobs data to get the easing ahead of the summer. He writes more on that below – and in greater detail here .
Still, the picture of the US jobs market is an unusual one. And pictures speak louder than words, so here are 10 charts that I think sum up everything that’s happening:
Jobs growth has collapsed
Private sector hiring has slowed dramatically. And that’s before you consider that the data for the year to March 2025 is set to be lowered by 60-70,000 per month in benchmark revisions due next week.
Source: Macrobond, ING
Low hire, low fire
Hiring rates are low, much lower than before the pandemic. But so too are ‘separations’ – very few people are getting fired or leaving their jobs voluntarily.
Source: Macrobond
Openings dropped sharply in January
Job openings fell sharply in January , a key catalyst for the dovish Fed repricing. Knightley suggests the drop was overdone; similar data from hiring platform Indeed has been more stable. But check out the sharp fall in hiring rates in “professional and business services”. Is the effect of AI starting to show up? More on that later…
More vacancies = more unemployment?
Job vacancies fall, unemployment goes up. Makes sense? Well, things changed during Covid. Vacancy rates went higher than you’d expect given the level of unemployment – a consequence of a worker mismatch between a hot service and a weak goods sector. Then, remarkably, vacancies began to fall with basically no impact on unemployment.
But that is changing. The relationship between openings and unemployment has normalised. And that means when job openings fall, just as they did this week, it’s much more likely to go hand-in-hand with a rise in joblessness.
Source: Macrobond, ING
Job cut announcements are up
Speaking of joblessness, job cut announcements were at their highest in January since 2009. Sure, some of that is concentrated in a few, high-profile companies. But it’s a tad ominous.
Source: Macrobond, ING
Healthcare has taken a beating
This really caught my eye this week. Healthcare job cuts have surged well above anything we’ve seen outside those crazy months at the start of Covid. It coincides with the expiry of various Affordable Care Act provisions, sharply increasing insurance premiums.
Source: Macrobond, ING
Healthcare has done all the hiring
Why bring up healthcare specifically? Well, just look at this chart. Knightley has shown me it so many times now. Yet it never ceases to amaze. Private healthcare – a sector that accounts for just 15% of employment – drove virtually all the job gains in 2025. Outside that and hospitality, job numbers in other sectors collectively fell. And that’s before those revisions I mentioned earlier…
Source: Macrobond, ING
Consumers are noticing all of this
Consumer confidence surveys show people think jobs are getting much less plentiful. The University of Michigan survey shows that the proportion of Americans expecting unemployment to rise is as high as in the midst of the financial crisis. Again, not good…
Based on the Conference Board measure of confidence
Source: Macrobond, ING
Labour supply is getting squeezed
All of the above may be true, yet the supply of workers is getting squeezed too. New data shows net migration halved in 2025 versus 2024. Some think it could be zero or even negative in 2026. That helps explain why, despite some of the pressures on demand for workers, the unemployment rate has risen only slightly. And ultimately it’s this – more so than payrolls – that’s making the Fed more relaxed about where the jobs market is headed.
Source: Macrobond, ING
Is it all AI?
Finally, I imagine the Fed is going to expend a lot of energy arguing over how much of this picture is down to AI. Not least, given prospective Chair Kevin Warsh’s focus on AI productivity gains. I mentioned those vacancies in professional services, which have fallen, though not crazily so by historical standards. And it’s a similar story to those layoff numbers. Challenger sort the job cut announcements by the reason given. AI explains less than 10% of them. And even then, you’ve got to wonder whether it’s a genuine or convenient explanation…
The jury’s out.
Source: Macrobond, ING
THINK Ahead in developed markets
United States (James Knightley)
NFP (Wed): While we are not seeing much on the firing front, hiring remains lacklustre. Outside of government, leisure & hospitality and private education & healthcare services, the US has lost jobs in seven of the past eight months, and we suspect we will see a similar outcome for January when the delayed report is published next Wednesday. The January FOMC statement removed the line that “downside risks to employment rose in recent months” while suggesting that there have been “some signs of stabilisation” in the unemployment rate. We expect unemployment to hold at 4.4%, but there are upside risks in the coming months due to the slow pace of hiring and rising supply of workers. Also watch out for the benchmark revisions which could meaningfully lower the employment hiring profile over the past year.
CPI (Fri): The January CPI report was originally scheduled for Wednesday, but has been pushed back to Friday. Some private sector measures of inflation have slowed sharply of late, but we still see the potential for stickiness in the CPI report, largely due to delayed tariff impacts. Import prices continue to rise, and tariff tax revenue is being paid by US importing companies. There are suggestions that “efficiency savings” are allowing companies to offset the cost increases from tariffs, but we see the risk that there is still some more feed-through to come for consumers. Nonetheless, lower energy costs and slowing housing rents will continue to provide a partial offset.
United Kingdom (James Smith)
UK GDP (Thur): Growth shouldn’t look too bad for Q4, helped by a boost from the restart of car production at a major manufacturer. But this is of limited relevance to the Bank of England, which thinks recent GDP data has overstated the strength, some of which is down to public rather than private sector output. This week’s meeting bolstered our call for a March rate cut.
THINK Ahead in Central and Eastern Europe
Poland (Adam Antoniak)
Flash 4Q25 GDP (Thu): The StatOffice has already published the estimate of annual 2025 GDP, so the approximation of 4Q25 is easier since we know 1-3Q25 data. Annual figure implies 4Q25 GDP growth around 4%YoY, with private consumption expanding also by some 4%YoY and fixed investment growth of slightly above 4%YoY. Change in inventories had a negative contribution to annual GDP in 4Q25, while net exports contribution was nearly neutral. Fixed investment growth continued to disappoint in 2025, particularly in the private sector. This year should bring a substantial acceleration of investment activity in EU funds inflow. Poland should receive around PLN160bn in Recovery & Resilience Fund (RRF) and cohesion policy money.
Jan CPI (Fri): The January reading is based on the legacy CPI basket and has limited scope, similar to flash reports. The figure will be revised in March, when the basket is updated. Still, we estimate a substantial slowdown in CPI inflation to below 2%YoY as the decline in gasoline prices deepened and food prices growth slowed further at the beginning of the year. We assess that core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, was broadly unchanged and close to 2.7%YoY.
Current account (Fri): December is traditionally a month of high trade deficit, and according to our forecasts, in 2025 the scale of trade imbalance was similar to that observed in 2024. As a result, the 12-month rolling current account deficit remained at 0.7% of GDP, i.e. as after November. The shift from 0.3% current account surplus in 2024 to 0.7% of GDP in 2025 is mild, and the Polish economy avoids any serious external imbalance.
Hungary (Peter Virovacz)
Inflation (Thu): We are going to see a crucial inflation print because January’s inflation is decisive for the rest of the year, both in terms of monthly repricing habits and full-year average. With falling food prices globally, cheaper household energy bills and lower fuel prices, we expect a lower-than-usual repricing at the start of 2026. In addition to these factors, we need to consider the government’s price shield measures, which can keep prices in check for services as well as goods. The relative stability of the forint may also help to keep month-on-month inflation low. Due to the extremely high base in January 2025, the year-on-year figure will drop significantly, possibly reaching as low as 2%.
Czech Republic (David Havrlant)
The unemployment rate likely increased in January, given the usual seasonal weakness in the jobs market during winter, when the tourism sector experiences its weakest point. January’s inflation is set to be confirmed below the target, while the core rate has likely picked up. The current account balance is likely to have deteriorated in December, when imports for Christmas sales and the bottoming out of investment activity promoted imports.
Key events in developed markets next week
Source: Refinitiv, ING
Key events in EMEA next week
Source: Refinitiv, ING
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
