Fra Danske Bank:
The war in the Middle East has lasted for more than two months, far longer than the initial time frame communicated by US officials. Despite the pause in fighting, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, as traffic levels remain very low. While most asset classes remain driven by geopolitics and the Iran war, equities have broken ranks, with earnings still rising despite a weaker GDP outlook.
How severe is the current energy supply shock? How rapidly can traffic recover once the strait opens? And what impacts have we seen in the global economy so far?
Danske Bank Chief Economist Minna Kuusisto will walk you through the geopolitical and energy markets outlook. She will be joined by Senior Analyst Antti Ilvonen who will discuss the central bank and EUR/USD outlook in the context of the recent developments in the Middle East and Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen , Head of Cross Asset Strategy, who will present the cross-asset perspective. Is AI-driven optimism a new regime, or merely a lag before margins compress and guidance rolls over?
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Danske Bank Research
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