Merrill har i sin omfattende analyse af handelsstrømmene dokumenteret, hvor afgørende den transatlantiske handel er – f.eks. i forhold til handelen med Kina. Derfor vil en eventuel handelskrig mellem USA og EU også blive særdeles alvorlig. Nedenstående er endnu en graf fra Merrill’s analyse.
Uddrag fra Merrill:
Exhibit 3 vividly underscores the importance of U.S.-Europe linkages. Of all the
commercial arteries in the world, the most important—thickest—is between the United
States and Europe. No commercial artery in the world is as large: Total transatlantic
foreign affiliate sales were estimated at $5.6 trillion in 2018, easily outranking other U.S.
arteries of commerce based on either trade (total trade=exports + imports) or foreign
direct investment (measured by foreign affiliate sales).
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data as of January 2020.
Investors should realize—notably against a backdrop of rising U.S.-Europe trade
tensions—that the United States and the European Union (EU) remain each other’s most
important foreign market in the world. This is not likely to change any time soon given
the deep and entangled commercial ties that link the transatlantic economy.
And speaking of the transatlantic economy, there is probably no more important
component of the global economy. Thanks to the dense inter-linkages of investment,
trade, technology, innovation and jobs that bind the two sides of the North Atlantic
together, the transatlantic economy remains a key pillar of the global economy.
The
combined output, for instance, of the United States and the European Union (plus
Norway, Switzerland and Iceland) accounted for roughly one-third of world GDP in terms
of purchasing power parity in 2019. Even if one excludes the United Kingdom, the U.S.
and the EU account for a substantial 30% of world GDP—higher than the combined
output of China and India (one-quarter of world GDP).
The transatlantic economy is not only larger than the twin giants of Asia but also
significantly wealthier. And because wealth matters, it’s little wonder that consumers
in the U.S. and the EU easily outspend their counterparts in China and India. The U.S.
and EU combined accounted for 52% of global personal consumption in 2018, versus a
combined share of just 14.3% for China and India.
In addition to the above, the transatlantic economy is a repository of innovation and
technological advancement, and at the forefront of global foreign direct investment and
global mergers and acquisitions activity. Taken together, U.S. and European merchandise
exports to the world accounted for 27% of global exports in 2018, the last year of
complete data; combined imports represented 32% of the world total. Meanwhile,
the U.S. and Europe together accounted for 58% of inward stock of foreign direct
investment (FDI) and 63% of outward stock of FDI.
