Uddrag fra NY Times, The Guardian, Polymarked, Bloomberg, True Social og Zerohedge
Summary:
- Iran makes clear Lebanon fighting must end or else Pakistan talks “meaningless” – as its delegation arrives in ‘locked down’ Pakistan. Speculation abounds related to ongoing Pentagon transport flights into Mideast region.
- Trump threatens more military action if Iran doesn’t ‘comply’, says Iran has ‘no cards’ – also as Israel-Lebanon talks scheduled in Washington next week. US delegation headed by Vance en route to Islamabad. But parliament speaker makes fresh demands on Lebanon.
- Lloyd’s: “The Iranians are willing to negotiate with certain countries to secure voyages, but only on a case-by-case basis.” A handful of mostly Iranian/China-linked tankers have passed in last 24 hours.
- After days of search and rescue, Lebanon death toll stands at over 300 following the Wednesday ‘surprise’ Israeli strikes. Sporadic IDF attacks continue on south and east.
Yes 19% · No 82%
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Trump Claims Iran has ‘No Cards’
…but does the White House actually believe this? He suggested that if the Iranians hadn’t agreed to negotiate, they would be dead (cue wiping out entire “civilization” threat from earlier).
On the question of leverage, this is Fox News from days ago (or rather, when you’ve lost Fox…):
Trump Warns Attack on Iran Will Continue if Tehran Doesn’t Comply
President Trump has confirmed to the NY Post that he’s preparing the US military for what would likely be a bigger Iran operation should Tehran not comply, and should Pakistan talks fail.
“We’re going to find out in about 24 hours. We’re going to know soon,” Trump told the Post when asked if he thinks the talks will be successful.
Already there’s a lot of back and forth over the 10-point plan on the eve of the summit, and with both sides now in Islamabad. A main point of contention remains whether Lebanon is part of the two-week ceasefire agreement.
There’s also been much speculation that all of this is just ‘cover’ for a bigger build-up of Pentagon forces in the region. Also, Iranian forces are no doubt using the opportunity to regroup.
Ghalibaf Demands Attacks on Lebanon Cease Or Else…
Iran Parliament spokesman Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, considered the official who is likely running the country day-to-day, says there will be no negotiations before the following:
1) ceasefire in Lebanon2) release of Iran’s blocked assets: “release of Iran’s blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations.”
Oil jumped on the news. This as some sporadic Israeli bombings of Lebanese territory have persisted into Friday, despite talk of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, with talks expected in Washington next week. It’s unclear whether Tehran and its negotiating team which just touched down in Pakistan will hold to this or not.
Likely at the very least the talks could start in ‘indirect’ format amid these fresh Iranian demands. Trump had also the day prior warned that Iran better not be collecting tolls for Hormuz Strait passage. Some of the latest:
THE IRANIAN DELEGATION WILL PARTICIPATE IN THE NEGOTIATIONS TOMORROW DESPITE THE IRANIAN STATEMENTS ABOUT LEBANON – SOURCESTHE AMERICAN AND IRANIAN TECHNICAL DELEGATIONS ARRIVED IN PAKISTAN THIS MORNING – SOURCESTIGHT-LIPPED ON INFORMATION ABOUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE IRANIAN DELEGATION TO PAKISTAN – SOURCES
Are Talks Cover for Bigger Pentagon Build-Up, Future Attack?
Some pundits say that Washington needed more time to get large contingencies of Marines and Airborne units in place, possibly for some kind of risky island campaign towards reopening the strait. This could be the case, as it’s also very evident to all that the demands of each side remain far apart, which means the chances for a breakthrough deal which finally ends the war are distant.
With a two week timeline in place to reach a deal, is this interim period merely for rearming and regrouping of forces on each side? Clearly, the US wasn’t prepared for the fierce, sustained Iranian counter-attack on American regional bases and Gulf allies.
Open-source data of military logistics flights between the US, Europe, and the Mideast region suggests there is indeed an ongoing build-up and posturing of forces happening on the eve of the Pakistan summit.
Sporadic Fighting Persists in Lebanon
A big question remains: will Israel and Lebanon actually formally start the ceasefire negotiations that Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered his cabinet to prepare for? Negotiations are tentatively expected to begin next week at the State Department in Washington. The massive Israeli strikes from earlier this week have threatened to derail the Iran ceasefire deal before it really gets off the ground.
Senior Iranian security sources suggests should Israel strike Beirut again, the US-Iran negotiations will be terminated: Press TV
For now, Israel has continued attacking Lebanon on Friday, also as Hezbollah has continued firing missiles on northern Israel. Wednesday saw some 70 rockets fired from Lebanon, after the earlier massive Israeli surprise attacks which killed over 300 Lebanese and over 1,150 wounded. There may be some ground fighting in the south too, amid ongoing IDF aerial attacks on southern Lebanon. Al Jazeera says that an Israeli airstrike hit the town of al-Tayri in southern Lebanon, and another targeted the town of Sahmar in the western Bekaa region of eastern Lebanon. Heavy Israeli strikes in the Nabatieh area of southern Lebanon have also been reported Friday.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem has vowed in a statement carried by AI Mayadeen that the Iran-aligned group will “remain steadfast” as “resistance will continue until our last breath.” He praised Hezbollah for thwarting a ground invasion, saying “the enemy was surprised by the methods of resistance, the flexibility of the Mujahideen movement, and their defensive capabilities.” He vowed, “We will not accept a return to the previous situation, and we call on officials to stop offering free concessions,” while denouncing the “bloody criminality on Wednesday.”
Iranian Delegation Arrives in Pakistan
As the US and Iran prepare for talks in Pakistan, the Lebanon crisis is still a closely watched sticky issue which could escalate before it gets better. Pakistani media has reported that the Iranian delegation has arrived for negotiations, which are set to proceed Saturday, also pending the arrival of the US team headed by Vice President JD Vance – and including Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
US team headed by Vance en route to Pakistan…
However, there’s been no official confirmed info about the arrival of Iranian Parliament Speaker and the Foreign Minister, but we can at least assume that Abbas Araghchi will be there in person. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf is likely there too.
Meanwhile, unconfirmed/developing chatter of division within Iranian negotiating ranks:
THE IRGC COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF AHMAD VAHIDI IS SEEKING TO CURB THE AUTHORITY OF MOHAMMAD BAGHER GHALIBAF AND FOREIGN MINISTER ABBAS ARAGHCHI IN THE TALKS. || VAHIDI HAS ALSO PUSHED FOR THE INCLUSION OF MOHAMMAD BAGHER ZOLGHADR, SECRETARY OF THE SUPREME NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, IN THE NEGOTIATING TEAM — A MOVE OPPOSED BY CURRENT MEMBERS, WHO CONSIDER HIM LACKING EXPERIENCE FOR STRATEGIC NEGOTIATIONS. – SOURCES
SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIALS ARE LOCKED IN A DISPUTE OVER THE COMPOSITION AND AUTHORITY OF THE DELEGATION SET TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE UNITED STATES IN ISLAMABAD, ACCORDING TO INFORMATION RECEIVED BY IRAN INTERNATIONAL. – SOURCES
Islamabad is said to be under effective lockdown while hosting the high stakes summit. President Trump previously expressed concern over the security situation, related to sending Vance. One outlet observes, “Pakistan has ramped up security in Islamabad ahead of high-stakes direct talks between the United States and Iran, with the federal capital administration declaring a two-day public holiday on Thursday and Friday.”
A Pakistani official has told The Guardian, “Our priority is that the talks go smoothly. We don’t want to be seen as a spoiler. Our role is as a facilitator and mediator. We will leave it to both parties, Iran and the US, to share any developments with the media if they want.”
Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has made clear Iran’s position that any peace negotiations would be “meaningless” if they took place while Israeli bombs continue to fall on Lebanon.
Washington Post reports the Trump admin intends to request the release of Americans detained in Iran as part of the negotiations.
Hormuz Status Update: ‘No Option’ but to Negotiate Passage with Iran
As a reminder, President Trump has stated that Iran is “doing a very poor job” of allowing oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz and warned Tehran against imposing tolls on vessels transiting the waterway. An Iranian lawmaker stated earlier that some ships are being charged as much as $2 million for passage through the strait.
Reuters highlights that the majority of ships that have sailed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past day were linked to Iran, per fresh tracking data. The majority of vessels, however, are still not risking passage with the waterway still under threat.
“Three tankers – a crude supertanker that can carry 2 million barrels of oil, a bunkering tanker and a smaller oil ship – all left Iranian waters in the past 24 hours, based on separate data analysis from Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence platforms,” Reuters notes. “Four dry bulk ships – including one that loaded iron ore from Iran bound for China – also sailed in the past day, the data shows.”
On the evening of Islamabad talks, Iran holds the Hormuz leverage. “The Iranians are willing to negotiate with certain countries to secure voyages, but only on a case-by-case basis,” said Bridget Diakun, a senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, to the NY Times. “The Trump administration is forcing its allies to negotiate with Iran because there is no other option.”
