Uddrag fra Polymarked, New York Times, NY Post, True Social og NBC:
- Trump says ‘highly unlikely’ will extend ceasefire if deal not signed in Pakistan.
- Iran’s military after Sunday’s US seizure of Iran-flagged cargo ship: will “take the necessary action against the US military”
- Vance intends to depart Tuesday to Pakistan, though still unclear whether Iranians will join – Pakistanis say yes, but timeline is fluid. Trump warns “nobody’s playing games” & “lots of bombs will go off” if no deal (PBS)
- Xi to Saudi crown prince important phone call: “the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway.“
Yes 28% · No 72%
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NYT: Iranians Making Plans to be in Pakistan
The NYT now says the Iranians are soon expected in Pakistan, despite that for the past 12-hours they issued denials that they are ready and willing to enter a second round of talks.
“An Iranian delegation is making plans to travel to Islamabad on Tuesday for negotiations with the United States, according to two senior Iranian officials familiar with the plans. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the influential political and military figure leading the talks,” the publication writes.
Yet, talk about of Tehran is still firm and tough, signaling the two sides are in reality far away from agreeing on anything, particularly the nuclear issue. While Iranian President Pezeshkian has newly stated that “honoring commitments is the basis of meaningful dialogue” – it remains there is “historical distrust”. He has stated on X: “they seek Iran’s surrender. Iranians do not submit to force.”
Trump: ‘Highly Unlikely’ He Extends Ceasefire
Lots of contradictory messaging this morning from Washington, Tehran, and Islamabad. Trump has said he will note open the Strait of Hormuz until a deal is signed (as both sides inside they in effect control the waterway).
Trump has also asserted that it remains ‘highly unlikely’ that he extends the ceasefire with Iran, at a moment Tasnim reports that “Iran’s decision not to participate in the negotiations has not changed until this moment.”
‘Lots of Bombs Will Go Off’ If Ceasefire Ends With No Deal: Trump
President Trump says bombs will go off if the ceasefire expires (set to end by Wed April 22), PBS reports. But he also said he doesn’t know if Iran is doing the next round of talks but says it is fine if Iran is not at the Pakistan talks. So who does Washington, led by VP Vance’s team, plan to talk to… itself? Or it might just plan to keep sending messages to the Pakistanis. The US could also be seeking to ‘demonstrate’ that the Iranians have simply refused negotiations, and so this will ‘justify’ bombs away again. Here are the latest Monday statements from Trump given to PBS:
- If no deal “then lots of bombs start going off.”
- Nuclear weapons will be discussed with Iran at the talks.
- “No nuclear weapons. Very simple. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Very simple.”
- “…we’re not negotiating anything other than the fact that they will not have a nuclear weapon”
- On the remarks from Secretary Wright that gas may not go below USD 3 until late-2026 or early-2027, Trump says: “I disagree with him totally. I think it’ll come roaring down if it ends. If we end it, if Iran does what they should do, it will come roaring down.”
His latest Monday morning Truth Social post, which appears very on the defensive:
Fresh Pentagon data indicates the US blockade has thus far directed 27 vessels to turn back.
Contradictory Reports of Vance Travel
So it seems the second round of talks are actually on, after several recent contradictory headlines concerning Tehran’s intent to send a team. As of Monday morning the Iranians have been signaling the cold shoulder, even as Pakistani officials quietly leak that their arrival is expected.
The NY Post freshly reports: “Vice President JD Vance and the US delegation to the peace talks here with Iran are en route to Pakistan and expected to land within hours, President Trump on Monday told The Post — adding that he was willing to meet with senior Iranian leaders if a breakthrough is reached.” However, CNN is saying he has not actually departed yet, and may not till Tuesday, as the talks are reportedly being planned for Wednesday.
“We’re supposed to have the talks,” Trump said in an interview when asked whether talks or still happening of if they are falling apart. He added: “So I would assume at this point nobody’s playing games.” According to more:
The president confirmed that a high-level US delegation — including Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner — is already en route to Islamabad for the next round of negotiations.“They’re heading over now,” Trump said shortly after 9 a.m. EST. “They’ll be there tonight, [Islamabad] time.”
NBC notes that, “Further complicating the picture, different Iranian leaders are sending contradictory messages. The IRGC vowed revenge for the seizing of an Iranian cargo ship yesterday, even as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continued to emphasize diplomacy.”
Shipping Traffic Halt Latest
Al Jazeera and others have written the strait is at a virtual standstill currently, after the major Sunday incident which saw the US Navy intercept, fire upon, and board an uncooperative ship which was trying to pass the US-imposed blockade. It was an Iranian-flagged ship which was forcibly stopped in the Gulf of Oman, where some dozen US warships have been patrolling.
Just three ships have crossed in the past 12 hours, shipping data indicates. The same publication records that “Oil products tanker Nero, which is under UK sanctions, has left the Gulf and is sailing through the strait, according to satellite analysis from data analytics specialists SynMax and tracking data from the Kpler platform.” And: “Two other ships – a chemical tanker and a liquefied natural gas tanker – have also sailed into the Gulf through the critical waterway separately, the data showed.”
Reuters: Senior Iranian official says positive efforts have been started by Pakistan to end the US blockade and ensure Iran’s participation in talks.
On Monday a spokesman for Iran’s military reiterated a threat to “take the necessary action against the US military” after the Sunday US interdiction. He described that that Iran’s military exercised restraint over the incident, not taking immediate action, in order to protect the ship’s crew, but will act “once it is ensured that the lives of the families and crew of the vessel attacked by the United States are safeguarded.” Apparently the crew’s family members are accompanying them aboard the vessel, the statement suggests.
Important Xi Jinping Statement on Hormuz
China’s President Xi Jinping on Monday demanded the uninterrupted passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in a phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, state news agency Xinhua reports. He urged the normalization of shipping traffic after about 50 days of disruption which obviously and significantly impacts Chinese oil imports.
“Normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz should be maintained, this is in the shared interests of regional countries and the international community,” Xi said. He called for an immediate, comprehensive ceasefire and insisted disputes be resolved through political and diplomatic means.
South China Morning Post observes that it was “the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway, which has been repeatedly blockaded since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28.” China imported 5.86 million tons of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, down 10% from February, according to customs data released Monday.
Second Pakistan Talks Imminent?
After the Sunday dramatic US seizure of the Iranian-flagged ship, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has said the country currently no plans regarding a new round of talks, however, it also said it is reviewing the latest Washington proposal related to a second round of Pakistan-hosted talks. With that, by Monday it reasserted that the transfer of enriched uranium out of the country or into US custody has never been on the table. Tehran is insisting that it won’t be transferred anywhere.
This firm stance is after President dramatically shifted his tone over the weekend from strangely and surprisingly somewhat praising Iran’s leadership (with statements such as the US could work with them and possibly trust them) to once up again ramping up threats, posting “No more Mr. Nice Guy” on social media.
Currently there are conflicting reports on whether the Iranian side will actually be there for reported possible Tuesday talks. Pakistan officials say the timing of the talks remains fluid. According to the latest via Associated Press Iranian authorities have expressed willingness to send a delegation to Islamabad, citing two Pakistan officials. The officials reports “cautious optimism that delegations from both Iran and the United States could travel to Islamabad.”
Some confused and conflicting signaling, likely purposely so…
The NY Times has declared that JD Vance will try again:
The vice president is scheduled to lead an American delegation back to Islamabad, Pakistan, this week for another round of in-person negotiations with Iran after failing to secure a deal just over a week ago.Whether the talks even occur seems in dispute. Hours after President Trump announced the trip on Sunday, Iranian state media said that Tehran had not yet agreed to any such meeting. Later, Mr. Trump announced that a Naval destroyer had attacked an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to skirt the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump has been threatening major escalation should there be no negotiated settlement, at a moment the two sides’ position are very distant especially on the nuclear issue.
Zero Sum Positions on Nuclear Issue
The problem, according to University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape is the zero sum logic of it all. “In a matter of a day, the system snapped back to escalation,” he wrote over the weekend. “This is not a story about fragile diplomacy or poor sequencing. It is a story about zero-sum conflict, where the core issues cannot be divided, traded, or deferred without forcing one side to accept a strategic loss—a direct contest over relative power.”
“At the center of the war is a fact that cannot be negotiated away: Iran either retains a nuclear capability on the threshold of weapons, or it does not,” Pape continues. “There is no stable middle ground that satisfies both sides.”
And more from the analysis: “The same zero-sum logic applies—more visibly and more immediately—to the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, Hormuz functioned as a global commons, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. That assumption is now broken. Iran has demonstrated that it can shift from disruption to conditional control, allowing passage under its terms while restricting or denying access when it chooses. The United States, in response, is attempting to preserve open navigation through blockade and interdiction. But these positions cannot be reconciled.”
