Consumer Metrics sår tvivl om de seneste høje BNP tal for 2. kvartal 2014 i USA:
And lastly, a gut check: did the 2nd quarter really feel like an economy that was growing 6.3% faster than during the 1st quarter? That is either a phenomenal turnaround over just 90 days, or a sign of seriously noisy numbers momentarily pointing towards implausible and/or unsustainable growth. When presented with contradictory or wildly noisy data, we have always trusted our gut feeling.
To that last point: assuming that an economy with the size, complexity and inertia of the US economy can’t really have growth rate changes in excess of 6% over 90 days, what is the real rate of GDP growth? In fact, either averaging the trailing 4 quarters or calculating the year-over-year change over the 4 quarters gives us a 2.5% real growth rate — essentially the same as the 2.3% growth in real consumer spending recorded over that same time span. When the BEA’s overly modest deflators are taken into consideration, an annual growth rate closer to 2% emerges — with per-capita GDP growth further diluted by a growing population to 1.1%. Those are certainly a more plausible growth rates that cut through most of the noise in the BEA’s headlines and more closely align with our gut feelings.
Our recommendation: keep both the champagne and your expectations corked and well chilledxx
