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Tysk BNP-vækst negativ i 2. kvartal// markedet venter to rentesænkninger i år

Morten W. Langer

tirsdag 30. juli 2024 kl. 11:04

Uddrag fra Bloomberg:

Gross domestic product fell 0.1% in the three months through June, an outcome predicted by only one out of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In contrast, both France and Spain grew more than predicted, while Italy slowed only slightly to show expansion of 0.2%.

A separate report in Spain showed inflation there weakened much more than expected to 2.9% in July, driven by lower energy and food prices.

The uneven growth outcomes across the region showcase the challenge faced by European Central Bank policymakers as they approach a judgment in September on whether the euro-zone economy is looking fragile enough to justify another interest-rate cut.

The ECB cautioned earlier this month that expansion is set to be muted in 2024, and is vulnerable to any global weakness or an escalation in trade tensions.

Other data out on Tuesday revealed that Austria’s economy stagnated in the quarter, while Lithuania’s kept up a robust pace of expansion. Reports on Monday showed an acceleration for Ireland and continued growth in Belgium — each bellwethers for the region.

Based on the data out so far, the Nowcast by Bloomberg Economics suggests that the euro-area economy expanded 0.2% in the quarter, matching the median estimates of economists.

Officials will also take a close interest in inflation numbers this week. German data will also be published on Tuesday, with early regional data there suggesting that price growth held steady at 2.5%, according to Martin Ademmer of Bloomberg Economics. Reports from the rest of the euro zone are due on Wednesday.

The overall outcome for the region is forecast by economists to have held steady in July at 2.5%, still noticeably above the ECB’s 2% goal.

German bonds erased small gains after the releases to leave the 10-year yield steady at 2.36%, close to the lowest since April. Money markets continue to price nearly a quarter-point reduction in September and two cuts by year-end.

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