Tysk økonomi ramt af faldende produktivitet

Analyse fra Natixis

The latest German cyclical indicators are poor, which means a constant
downward revision of growth prospects for Germany may be called for. What
accounts for this deterioration in Germany’s economic situation while, given
the situation of full employment and the acceleration in wages, it was
believed that German growth would be solid?
We will present three possible explanations, and we believe all of them are
valid:
– As Germany is approaching full employment, its growth is becoming
determined by its potential growth – which is very low despite
immigration – with very low productivity gains;
– Moreover, Germany may suffer from the slowdown in growth in the euro
zone and Russia and the slowdown in global trade, because of the large
proportion of exports in its economy;
– Germany may start having a supply problem: since the crisis, companies
have kept an excessive workforce as they have avoided layoffs;
productivity is stagnant, real wages are increasing faster than
productivity and profitability is declining, which is depressing
investment and exacerbating the problem of low potential growth.