Tyskland har håndteret coronakrisen langt bedre end de øvrige europæiske lande og USA, og Tyskland er blevet en model for, hvordan en virus-krise kan håndteres både lægeligt og økonomisk, skriver Deutsche Bank i en omfattende analyse. Sundhedssystemet har haft tilstrækkelig kapacitet, så Tyskland har langt det laveste antal dødsfald pr. indbygger, i forhold til de andre vestlige industrilande. En sund økonomi gennem mange år har også gjort det muligt at afhjælpe krisen økonomisk. Tyskland kan håndtere store underskud. Deutsche Bank venter, at Tyskland vil få en af de hurtigste genstarter. Det vil være et forbillede for EU, mener banken.
COVID-19: Crisis resilience made in
Germany
Germany has emerged from the global COVID-19 crisis as an undisputed success
story. It will become the model for how to deal with future pandemics. It recorded
by far the lowest number of fatalities per million of inhabitants of any of the major
industrial countries. It responded early and comprehensively to outbreaks of
infections.
Its federal structure allowed for nuanced differentiations across the Länder. Above all its “best in class” health care system was able to deliver immediate and overwhelming assistance. No shortage of testing, medical equipment, including intensive care units, no shortage of medical personnel, and above all no shortage of testing.
Furthermore, Germany’s decentralized healthn administration offices, the Gesundheitsämter, will now be able to play an integral part in the tracing and tracking approach to localize or prevent a second wave of the pandemic.
Equally as important, Germany’s often ridiculed fiscal frugality during the good
times prior to the pandemic gave it the firepower to respond with shock and awe
and will make it possible to come close to achieving the stated goal that no one
should lose their job because of corona and no business should have to close its
doors because of corona.
That is what a EUR 1.9 trn (55% of GDP) support program, followed by a EUR 130 bn cyclical spending program, will buy. Germany’s debt as percentage of GDP will still remain at around 80%.
If necessary there is plenty of room for a further cyclical support program. Furthermore, almost half of the cyclical program was intelligently targeted to support green, digitalization, and e-mobility goals. The downturn will be sharp, but that happens when you shut down an economy.
However, we comfortably predict that Germany’s recovery will be one of
the fastest among of the industrial countries, being held back only by the lackluster
performance of its traditional trading partners.
There are many lessons for the European Union and its member countries that can
be learnt from Germany’s economic and health care policies. Above all, that crises
come out of nowhere when least expected. We need to act fast, build and maintain
infrastructure to protect our populations, restore fiscal balances, and normalize
monetary policy to regain our ability to act decisively when it is needed. Germany has shown the way.
