Der er ingen tegn på, at Tyskland vil sætte mere skub i økonomien ved at forøge de offentlige udgifter eller investeringer.
Uddrag fra ABN Amro:
German politics unlikely to result in a big fiscal boost. Debt brake is a key constraint on spending. During the weekend, the leadership of Germany’s government coalition partner SPD changed. Before the leadership vote, the newly elected SPD leaders, Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken, had been critical about the party’s coalition with the CDU/CSU. They were in favour of raising the minimum wage and wanted more investment in infrastructure and climate protection, if needed by raising government debt and breaking the zero-deficit rule that is written into Germany’s constitution. This has fuelled speculation about the possibility of a big fiscal boost in Germany.
Still, comments to the press since the change of leadership at the SPD suggest that the chances of this happening are slim. Pominent members and regional leaders of the SPD have urged the two new leaders to prevent a split within the SPD, which could happen if the current coalition government collapses. On the other hand, CDU/CSU officials, including Chancellor Angela Merkel, have mentioned that they will not renegotiate the coalition agreement, but that they are open to discussing tweaks and adjustments. All in all, it seems the probability of a breakup of the coalition, which would result in either early elections or a minority government still, are limited. The SPD will hold a party conference on 6-8 December, when they will have to approve the new leadership and vote on the continuation of the government coalition.
Even in the unlikely event that early elections were held, the chances of a big fiscal boost seem low. According to current government plans, the general budget surplus would decline from around 1.2% GDP in 2019 to 0.2% in 2021. This means that, staying within the rules of the debt-brake, extra spending of around EUR 15-20bn would be possible during the next few years, which would raise annual GDP growth by roughly 0.2-0.3pp.
