Udenlandske investorer er begyndt storudsalg af US-aktier: Det er slet ikke slut endnu

Uddrag fra Deutsche Bank, Haver, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Macrobond

A key risk to the market

Foreigners hold a record amount of US stocks. And they have just started selling. Deutsche Bank says that there could easily be one trillion dollars of foreign selling. This is way bigger than the corporate demand (=the biggest buyer) estimated this year. Is this really the end of US exceptionalism ?

International investors own a record 18% of the US equity market

Foreign investor ownership of US equities has increased by 11 pp during the last 25 years, to 18% from just 7% in 2000.

Source: FED

Or is it 25%…?

In this way of measuring it, foreign investors hold almost a quarter of US equities.

Source: Haver

One trillion dollars of foreign selling

Deutsche Bank says it’s possible foreigners might consider selling comfortably over $1tn of US equities.

Source: Deutsche Bank

It has already started

Biggest foreign selling of US stocks since March’23…

Source: BofA

A trillion is a lot…

A trillion of foreign selling is a lot. Almost totally countering the buying estimated by Goldman of corporates & households.

“This year, we forecast corporates will be the largest buyer of equities – $675 billion of net corporate demand. We forecast households will buy $425 billion of equities. In contrast, mutual funds will be sellers of $550 billion of equities due to persistent active mutual fund outflows and low cash balances.” (GS)

Look out below

End of American exceptionalism in one chart…..?

Source: Bloomberg

Overdue rebalancing

Usually outperforming markets see outflows. Deutsche Bank says that the selling / rebalancing is long overdue.

Source: Deutsche

What if?

US equities are still expensive – what if they dropped back to the 15-year average premium?

Source: Deutsche

There is money to invest in the global system…

…. but it is not going to the US market right now.

Source: Macrobond

De-coupled

Non-US equities, in particular Europe, have already started to decoupled from US-equities.

Source: Datastream