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Finans

Udsigt til de laveste lønstigninger i Sverige i årtier

Hugo Gaarden

tirsdag 16. juni 2020 kl. 11:00

Lønudviklingen i Sverige har været faldende gennem de seneste årtier, men nu er der udsigt til endnu lavere lønstigninger – som følge af corona-krisen, skriver Nordea i en analyse. Nordea venter en lønstigning på 1,9 pct. i år og næste år. Halvdelen af lønmodtagerne fik deres løningerne fastfrosset under coronakrisen. Spørgsmålet er, om den svenske lønudvikling vil afspejle lønudviklingen i industrilandene og om det illustrerer en gennemgående effekt af coronakrisen.

Uddrag fra Nordea:

Postponed agreements lead to lower wage growth

The big pay round has been postponed and nearly half of all wage earners have had their wages frozen. Despite this, we expect wage growth at 1.9% this year and next year. Pay rises below the inflation target is another headache for the Riksbank.

The major pay round, which was to be completed during the spring, has been postponed until the autumn. This implies zero wage increases for employees whose pay deals expired in the spring, or nearly half of all employees in the Swedish economy. Instead their wages are frozen at current levels over the summer.

On October 1, the negotiations which are to result in new pay deals for a total of 2.8m wage earners will be resumed. It is worth noting that only around 5% of Swedish wage earners have pay deals completely without any numbers.

Prior to the coronavirus crisis, the rate of wage growth accelerated. On March 31, deals expired covering nearly 1.4m people or around one-third of wage earners. In April a large number of other deals expired. From and including May we reckon that around half of all wage earners had their wages frozen.

However, we expect that composition effects will dampen the decline in the wage growth. These effects are much smaller than in the US for example, where this accounts for several percentage points. In Sweden, composition effects should as a maximum amount to a couple of tenths. One reason is that unemployment has not increased as much, another is that the wage spread is very low in Sweden.

It could also be more difficult for the Swedish National Mediation Office to produce the wage statistics, and the preliminary wage outcome will be uncertain going forward.

We expect the wage growth rate to bottom at 1.3% y/y in the early autumn of 2020. Wage drift has been very low in recent years and is set to drop sharply near term, only to rise somewhat during 2021.

At the same time inflation is non-existent, which despite everything leads to higher real wages. Low inflation may also make it easier for trade unions and employers to reach agreement in October. Inflation expectations as well as wage expectations on both sides have also come down.

When the pay talks resume in October, unemployment will be at 10% according to our forecast. Employment is low and significant numbers of people are still temporarily laid off. This argues for low pay deals. The economic outlook usually has limited spill-over effects on the pay round.

Moreover, prospects for the domestic economy will likely have brightened whereas the situation remains difficult in the industrial sector, which acts as a benchmark for other sectors. This could put pressure on the model with a benchmark which everyone must follow.

An unexpected factor for the pay round is also that the Swedish Trade Union Confederation (LO), and the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise have agreed on better pension conditions – but only if all LO unions sign deals that run until the spring of 2023. Is that enough to justify 3-year deals?

It’s certainly difficult to see all LO trade unions succeeding together with their respective counterparties in reaching pay deals running until the spring of 2023 given the prevailing uncertainty. But it’s also difficult to envisage a 6-month deal. In these cases, perhaps the difference between 18 months and 30 months is not considered so great in light of the advantages of getting a pension agreement in place.

Our baseline scenario consequently assumes a deal covering 30 months. The agreement will be back-end loaded, with higher wage increases later on as the economic setting improves.

Regardless of the agreement period, we see subdued wage growth near term. Wage increases are likely to be agreed at 1.8% retroactively from October 1. For 2021, we also look for an agreed wage growth rate of 1.8%. In total, the wage growth rate in our forecast is 1.9% for the full years 2020 and 2021; this should be compared to 2.5% on average for the past three years.

Wages below the inflation target are a headache for the Riksbank and a growing area of concern for the Executive Board members as we emerge from the immediate crisis. At the same time moderate pay deals support the recovery as they reduce the risk that unemployment will take hold at elevated levels.

The next outcome for wages relates to April and will be published on 30 June.

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