Den italienske bank Unicredit vurderer, at mens det værste er overstået, så bliver genopretningen værre og mere langstrakt end forventet. Det skyldes, at omkostningerne ved krisen vil slå hårdere igennem end forventet. I USA ventes væksten i år at blive på minus 7,4 pct. mod hidtil forventet minus 10,5 pct., mens en stigning i væksten næste år vil blive på 6,3 mod tidligere forventet 11,4 pct. I Europa ventes nedturen i år at blive på minus 11 mod forventet minus 13, mens fremgangen næste år vil blive på 8 pct. mod forventet 10 pct. I Kina bliver der en total anden udvikling – med stagnation i år og en vækst næste år på 11,5 pct.
The trough is behind us, but it is a long way back to normal
■ Global: An earlier end to the “Great Lockdown” has led us to fine-tune our forecasts for several countries. Globally, we now see a somewhat less severe contraction of 5% this year (previously 6%) and a less pronounced recovery of 6-7% next year (previously 8-9%).
The road to full recovery will likely be long. A relatively rapid “technical” rebound in 3Q20 might be followed by materially slower growth later this year as the long-term costs of the crisis become clear.
Social distancing measures are likely to persist, whether statemandated or otherwise, well into next year. We expect a significant rise in corporate
defaults and long-term unemployment, and increased public and private debt to weigh on aggregate demand. Uncertainty remains extremely high, related to the path of COVID-19, the behavior of firms and households, and the timing of the withdrawal of fiscal support.
■ US: The lockdown of the US economy was less-stringent and shorter than its peers and our expectations and, consequently, the hit to GDP in 2Q20 is likely to be smaller than expected.
However, we now forecast a significantly weaker recovery amid growing numbers of new COVID-19 cases in southern and western states. We also have concerns that the fiscal response might not be well targeted and could be withdrawn prematurely.
In yearly average terms, we see GDP contracting by 7.4% this year (previously 10.5%) and expanding by 6.3% in 2021 (previously 11.4%). By 4Q21 we expect GDP to be about 1.5% below its pre-crisis level, approximately one percentage point lower than we initially estimated.
The Fed is likely to keep rates on hold through 2022. We expect it to formally adopt flexible average-inflation targeting, and yield-curve control up to 2-3 years maturity, later this year.
■ Eurozone: The timing of the lifting of restrictions affects our short-term growth forecasts, but not our medium-term assessment. We have fine-tuned our GDP projections by raising the yearly average for 2020 to -11% from -13%, and reducing it for 2021 to +8% from +10%.
This would still leave GDP some 3-4% below its pre-crisis level at the end of 2021, very much in line with our previous projections. The ECB is stepping up its action to preserve favorable financial conditions and safeguard the transmission of monetary policy as issuance of government debt intensifies.
The European Commission’s proposed recovery fund – named “Next Generation EU” – is a landmark initiative. It is the signaling effect, rather than its size, that makes this fund a potential game changer.
■ China: We expect GDP to stagnate in 2020, and to expand by 11.5% in 2021. Although the lockdown was removed in mid-March and mobility has picked up, consumers are still reluctant to spend and retail sales are struggling to recover.
Factory activity, on the other hand, has improved strongly, with industrial value-added back to its pre-crisis level. Beijing has adopted a fiscal package equivalent to about 4% of GDP that we do not expect to be expanded, unless a second wave of contagion takes place at the national level.
The PBoC stands ready to boost its lending facilities to support bank loans to micro and small firms.
