Cheføkonomen hos italienske UniCredit, Erik F. Nielsen, tager i sin søndagsanalyse et view over verdensøkonomien og Joe Bidens økonomiske planer og konkluderer, at der kan komme en markedsreaktion inden sommeren, måske med kursfald på 10 pct., men så går det op igen, da markedet som helhed ikke er overvurderet. MEN: Investorerne skal blive meget selektive, for nogle high-tech selskaber med ringe indtjening er overvurderede. De største kan blive ramt af nye reguleringer og beskatninger. Da bliver der mere fokus på den grønne økonomi, og det vil ramme mange “gamle” energivirksomheder.
The path through 2021: Growth and markets
Let me sum it all up and sketch what I think my story means for markets, and specifically for the relative attractiveness of the key sectors, over the medium- to longer term.
The prospect for global growth is promising (even if Europe is lagging behind) and it’ll be several
years before excessive inflation is back. This means that yields should remain relatively well behaved, which, in turn, translates into an assessment that the stock market – as a whole – is not fundamentally overvalued, at least not to a degree where it causes concern.
But the equity story will increasingly be one of “selection”:
My money is on almost anything associated with the forthcoming shift towards a greener economy. Technology will be key, but the hype has gotten ahead of reality and I think we’ll need to be more selective going forward: Future taxation and regulation will put a damper on “big tech” (the “FANGs”), and the focus will (and should) shift from “big-cap tech” to smaller “producing”
tech companies, particularly those supplying green technology as well as health related solutions.
But remember, also tech companies will need to actually make money; valuations are mindboggling for a big cluster of tech companies which have never turned a profit.
I also think we need to pay attention to the development of new definitions of what it means to be “nationally essential industries”, e.g. Pharma, but also in some of the traditional manufacturing sectors.
Their “home-coming” will likely be good for their prospects. Note that for all his commitment to multilateralism, President Biden also appealed this past week to “buy American”. Europe is unlikely to be any different.
Finally, and needless to say, the “old polluters” surely have their work cut out
So, if you are of the old British school of “sell in May and go away”, I suggest you do so very selectively. As my colleague Christian Stocker reminds us, the risk of a “correction” of maybe up to 10% is increasing as we head into summer, but it’ll be temporary, so you’ll want to be around to buy on the dip.