Fra Danske Bank:
Sofie Liv Petry, [email protected] , Assistant Analyst
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Focus remains in the Middle East as the US’ blockade of Iranian ports continues, while details regarding the implementation are scarce.
Overnight, China will release both Q1 GDP as well as the monthly batch of data for retail sales, housing, industrial production and investments. Especially housing and consumer data are in focus as these have been the weak spots of the economy. GDP growth is expected at 4.8% y/y up from 4.5% y/y in 2025 Q4 driven by strong export growth.
Economic calendar
In the Middle East , the US continued enforcing its blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz. The US‑sanctioned, Chinese tanker that appeared to have transited the strait yesterday made a U‑turn, apparently unwilling to challenge the blockade. In the first 24 hours of its blockade, the US military said no ships passed and six vessels turned back when ordered. Media reports suggest Iran may refrain from testing the blockade to smooth the path towards renewed talks. Last night, President Trump said talks to end the war could resume within two days; Iranian officials said discussions could continue this week, although a senior Iranian official noted no date has been set yet. It would be a surprise if the talks lead to a permanent ceasefire, with the most likely scenario being an extension of the current ceasefire, if the US and Iranian officials meet again over the weekend or early next week.
In the oil market, Brent crude fell to USD95/bbl yesterday and thus back towards the lows from last week following the ceasefire announcement. The price drop comes despite further tightening of world oil supplies as the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keeps Iran’s oil off the market together with the lost supplies from the rest of the Gulf. Rather the market seems optimistic that the resumption of talks between the US and Iran will lead to an eventual reopening of the strait and normalisation of the supply situation.
In the euro zone, Lagarde did not give any firm forward guidance signals other than ECB is data-dependent and ready to act. She mentioned that the ECB needs data to act, which speaks somewhat against action already in April, unless the important data releases clearly show significant upward price pressures. Lagarde also said that the euro area economy is somewhere between the “baseline” and “adverse” scenario. In our view the baseline scenario would lead ECB to “look through” the energy shock while “adverse” should cause two hikes.
In the US , March PPI surprised to the downside with an increase of 0.5% m/m SA (Feb: 0.5%, cons: 1.1%). Goods prices jumped 1.6% m/m, driven by energy up 8.5% m/m, partly offset by food down 0.3% m/m. Given that it was the first full month covering the period with war in Iran it was a positive that the PPI did not increase even further. Despite the lower‑than‑expected PPI, it did not shift expectations for near‑term cuts from Fed, with markets pricing roughly a one‑in‑three chance of a rate cut this year.
The US NFIB small business optimism index for March came out weak, falling below its historical average of 98.0 to 95.8 in March, down from 98.8 in February. NFIB wrote that “the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike”. Hiring plans and the number of job openings that companies were unable to fill continued its downward trend from February, indicating potential signs of an easing labour market.
In Sweden, final inflation figures confirmed the flash estimate, showing declines in food, energy and services. While we expected firms to start lowering food prices ahead of the reduced VAT effective April, the effect was larger than initially anticipated. The larger decline in energy is attributed to a steeper fall in electricity prices of -19% m/m due to mild March weather (forecast: -14% m/m), while fuel prices surged, as expected.
Equities: The equity rally continued Tuesday, with most indices up about 1%. This takes MSCI World above the pre-war levels, although valuation is significantly lower due to large positive earnings revisions that have taken place since.
Growth stocks and cyclicals outperformed meaningfully yesterday. Global growth stocks beat value by more than 1pp, cyclicals beat defensives by roughly the same. This takes growth stocks 3pp ahead of value stocks over the last seven days. Normally, US would outperform European and Nordic markets in this setup – and it did, somewhat – but what is different this time around is that Europe is more exposed to Iran through energy prices. Hence, the peace trade is stronger in Europe and Nordics, which offset the cyclical growth stock preference. Normally, global large caps would also outperform small caps in this setup due to the US tech giants. However, small caps held up well in the rally yesterday, with Russell 2000 even ahead of S&P 500 and Nordic small caps meaningfully as well. US and European futures are little changed this morning.
FI and FX: The risk sentiment was supported yesterday by hopes of a new round of peace talks between the US and Iran. Oil prices dropped another 3-4%, which helped pull global yields a couple of basis points lower – UST10y at 4.25% and the Bund at 3.02% this morning. Treasuries were also supported by soft US PPI data. EUR/USD rose for a seventh day consecutive day, starting today’s European session just below 1.18. EUR/NOK edged higher amid lower oil while EUR/SEK rose as well, despite improved risk appetite. The Swedish rates and FX have their eyes on Origo’s inflation expectations report at 08:00 CET.
See also our in-depth FI and FX morning comment *
Reading the Markets Norway. NGB auction preview: Norges Bank to sell NOK3bn in NGB 1.75% 2029 and NGB 4.125% 2036 , 14 April
Reading the Markets – Nordics , 14 April
Spending Monitor – March spending defies rising energy prices , 13 April
Global Inflation Watch: Headline inflation higher but no lift to core inflation , 10 April
Geopolitical Radar: Pause, Not Peace , 10 April
Euro Area Macro Monitor – War in Iran dominating the economic outlook , 9 April
Reading the Markets EUR – Primary markets on fire. What about the ECB and Hungary? , 9 April
Report completed: 15 April 2026, 07:00 CEST
Report first disseminated: 15 April 2026, 07:30 CEST
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Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
