BNP Paribas vurderer, at de amerikanske virksomheder risikerer at få et indtægtstab på 1000 milliarder dollar i første halvår, og det kan blive langt værre næste år. Det kan føre til voldsomme nedskæringer og lukninger. Der er behov for en betydelig ekstra finanspakke for både virksomheder og husholdninger, især for mindre virksomheder.

Uddrag fra BNP Paribas:

US: Policy for a trillion dollar shock [ We expect businesses to face a revenue shortfall of USD1trn in H1 this year, and cumulative revenue loss around USD2.5trn through next year. This could pressure firms to either reduce some combination of profits, payroll, and supplier costs, or shut down. The Fed and Congress have delivered a swift and substantial crisis response to date of around USD3.5trn in combined credit and income. This was crucial. However, we expect more to be needed going forward, as revenues likely remain below 2019 levels through the year. In particular, we think further income support will be needed for higher-saving households and to preclude SME closures. We expect Congress and the Fed to deliver a further USD1trn of income support for households and SMEs, along with at least USD1trn or more of credit support for SMEs and state & local governments. Failure to do so could negatively impact our growth expectations. Risks lie to the downside, however, as political divergences make passing incremental bills more difficult. View Document