USA: Stærkt øget ledighed og forbruger-mistillid

ING mener, det er for tidligt at vurdere effekten af coronavirussen i USA og af den amerikanske finanspakke, men ledigheden ventes at stige meget kraftigt i april, og det vil føre til et kæmpefald i forbrugertilliden. Det afgørende bliver, om præsident Trump vil trække nedlukningen af erhvervslivet tilbage.

Uddrag af ING:

It might be too early to see the full effects of the coronavirus in the March US jobs report, but markets will pay closer attention to the President for further clues on whether he plans to unwind some of the containment measures in only a matter of weeks.

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US: Magnitude of the economic hit becoming clearer

The grim news on infections and deaths from Covid-19 continues and this coming week we will increasingly see the economic costs. Jobless claims have surged in the past week as the lockdown in many cities and states has led businesses to shutter and lay-off workers. Due to the timing of the survey period for the US jobs report we are likely to see a relatively muted impact on non-farm payrolls for March. Nonetheless, with firings having started early in the month and hirings ceased, we still expect to see a negative number, with the unemployment rate based on the household survey likely to jump. The April report should be dire with a monthly fall in payrolls running to several million.

This, coupled with plunging equity markets, means we should also be braced for huge falls in consumer confidence. Business surveys, namely the ISM reports, will also plunge and reinforce the belief that the US is already in a deep recession.

The fiscal and monetary stimulus is huge, but it is about damage limitation more than anything. The US can only grow once the economy re-opens. In this regard, we will be closely following President Trump’s press conferences as to how hard he is leaning in the direction of tentative easing of restrictions, despite the ongoing healthcare crisis.

Focus on eurozone confidence data for an early hint of the Covid-19 impact

There are a lot of indicators out for the eurozone next week, but most of them are not particularly useful. Look for Monday’s March economic sentiment data, as it will contain a lot of detail on how businesses and consumers assess the situation. The caveat is that it will already be outdated given the new restrictive measures in place since the survey was conducted. Inflation for March will be dominated by the drop in the oil price of course, while retail sales and unemployment are still February numbers, making them less relevant at the moment.

Key events

Bloomberg, ING
Bloomberg, ING
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