Resume af teksten:
Den amerikanske ISM Manufacturing Index steg til 52,7 i marts fra 52,4 i februar, det højeste niveau siden august 2022. Produktionen steg til 55,1, understøttet af stærk ordrebog og stigende ordretilbagefald. Nye ordrer faldt til 53,5, og ordretilbagefald var på 54,4, men begge tal er over deres seks måneders gennemsnit. Imidlertid reduceres beskæftigelsen fortsat med en komponent på 48,7, hvilket er under break-even niveauet på 50. Priserne betalte komponenten steg markant til 78,3 på grund af olieprisstigninger. De reducerede takster har kun haft en mild effekt på at lette presset på profitmarginerne. ISM-rapporten antyder, at den amerikanske fremstillingssektor er sund, men der er fortsat udfordringer, især på grund af energiusikkerheden forårsaget af konflikten i Mellemøsten.
Fra ING:
The US ISM manufacturing index improved further in March, led by strong production levels. A decent order book suggests production will continue growing in coming months, but rising prices and reduced employment underscore the lingering challenges for the sector
The US ISM Manufacturing index rose in March, indicating the US economy is in decent shape despite the conflict in the Middle East
Manufacturing continues to make progress
Recent US activity data has, in general, surprised to the upside so far this year and that has continued with today’s retail sales and ISM manufacturing numbers, suggesting that the economy is in a relatively good position to withstand the economic challenges presented by the Middle East conflict.
The US ISM Manufacturing index rose to 52.7 in March from 52.4 in February. This is the best print since August 2022, while the consensus view was looking for it to come in at 52.3. Production rose to 55.1 from 53.5, reflecting a legacy of strong new orders in recent months and a rising order backlog. New orders for March did dip to 53.5 from 55.8, while the order backlog figure came in at 54.4 versus 56.6 last time, but both remain ahead of their six-month averages of 51.6 and 50.1 respectively. This suggests that production can continue to grow strongly for the next couple of months at least.
The less positive details are a soft employment component of 48.7 versus 48.8 previously. This is below the 50 break-even level, suggesting jobs continue to be shed by the sector. Unsurprisingly, there was a big jump in the prices paid component to 78.3 from 70.5 reflecting the spike in oil prices, while reduced tariff rates following the striking down of IEEPA are offering only a mild mitigating offset at this stage. As such, profit margins remain under pressure.
ISM services likely to face more headwinds
Overall, the ISM report suggests that the US manufacturing sector started the year in a very healthy position, especially relative to international peers. Moreover, the chart below shows the relationship between GDP growth and the ISM output series for the manufacturing and services sector and suggests we would likely have had to revise up our 2026 GDP growth forecasts were it not for the uncertainty and the spike in energy costs being caused by the conflict in the Middle East. That said, while the manufacturing sector is doing well, we suspect the high energy/economic uncertainty will be more of a drag for Monday’s service sector ISM where we expect the headline index to drop to 53.0 from 56.1.
ISM output series versus GDP growth YoY%
Source: Macrobond, ING estimates
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
