Usikker oliepris og ny EU-jobsikringsplan

Olieprisen steg kraftigt i går efter et Trump-tweet, men faldt så tilbage, da der hersker usikkerhed om en russisk-saudisk olieaftale. EU-landene tog et skridt til en bedre sikring af de, der bliver arbejdsløse under coronakrisen.

Uddrag fra Danske Bank:

A tweet from President Trump yesterday sent oil prices significantly higher and had a positive spill-over effect on equities. In the tweet Trump stated that he had talked to Saudi Arabia and that he expected that Russia and Saudi Arabia would cut supply by 10m barrels per day. However, this has not been confirmed and the oil price retracted later yesterday. The significant rise in US jobless claims was well “absorbed” by the market even though the number was well above the consensus expectations and shows that more than 10m Americans has now filed for unemployment benefits.

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Coordination within EU to limit the negative effects of the corona virus took another step yesterday, as the EU Commission unveiled a new an unemployment reinsurance scheme dubbed “SURE“. Given this new plan Brussels will provide loans to countries that face a sudden and severe rise in spending on short-time working schemes. The initiative is part of a broader set of proposals to be discussed by the Eurogroup next week. It is a step in the right direction, but EU’s borrowing ability under the plan will remain dependent on guarantees from member states.

The Danish Central Bank spent some DKK 64bn in March to keep the EUR/DKK stable. This was as expected, and the intervention as well as the rate hike has stabilised EUR/DKK. The intervention was needed as domestic investors were unwinding primarily USD FX hedges. It is now attractive for Danish investors to “repatriate” EUR assets back into DKK, and thus there should be limited pressure on DKK going forward, see more in our research note Large scale intervention in EURDKK, April 2.

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This morning the rally in the equity markets seems to fizzle as we have reached the 1m mark for virus infections and the lockdown continues, which will have significant negative impact on the economy.

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