Vækst i kreditterne indikerer bedre global økonomi

Kreditterne begynder at flyde i flere lande, især i Kina, viser Saxo Banks Credit Impulse, og det indikerer bedre udsigter for den globale økonomi.

Uddrag fra Saxo Bank:

Our proprietary leading indicator, Credit Impulse, which tracks the flow of new credit from the private sector, is at a turning point. We expect that global credit impulse will become positive in the coming quarter, which confirms our positive narrative for the global economy in 2020.

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Based on preliminary data, Global Credit Impulse, which is based on 18 countries representing ¾ of global growth, is about to turn positive. It is currently standing at minus 0.1% of global GDP. Following the Powell pivot in early 2019, we have seen an increase in the flow of new credit in China and most of the developed countries, with the exception of the United Kingdom.

The real game changer has been the reversal in China Credit Impulse we have discussed yesterday. For the first time since the end of 2017, China Credit Impulse is back in expansion territory, evolving at 0.7% of GDP. We expect that Credit Impulse will continue to expand in 2020 on the back of more debt stimulus through a significant increase in the amount of bond issuance targeting infrastructure investments. The global economy is at a turning point and we could see the current business cycle lasts much longer than many expect if the credit expansion in China continues at steady pace this year.

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