Velfærdsstaten har virkelig vist sin værdi under coronakrisen. Den har for første gang sigt sig effektiv under en økonomisk krise, fordi den har reduceret indkomsttabet, som ellers har ramt både borgere og virksomheder. Det viser en analyse af Tyskland fra to tyske forskningsinstitutter, Ifo og IAB. Undersøgelsen viser, at pandemien har ført til et indkomsttab på 3 pct. For de 10 pct. dårligst stillede var tabet på 4,3 pct. Men kombinationen af statsstøttede korttids arbejdspladser og lavere afgifter reducerede tabet for de dårligst stillede til 1,1 pct. Korttids arbejdspladserne sikrede mange jobs og fungerede som en økonomisk støddæmper. Under krisen er uligheden altså ikke blevet værre, snarere tværtimod.
IAB and ifo: Welfare State Eases the Blow of Income Lost to Coronavirus in Germany
Germany’s state welfare system was able to significantly mitigate employees’ loss of income due to the coronavirus crisis. This is the conclusion of a joint study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and the ifo Institute.
The study estimates that the pandemic cut gross income by about 3 percent; among the bottom 10 percent of incomes, this reduction was as high as 4.3 percent.
“However, the combination of the short-time work allowance plus lower taxes and duties reduced this decrease to an average of 1.1 percent,” says Andreas Peichl, who heads the Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys at ifo. “Short-time work is functioning as planned – like a shock absorber in a car.”
Kerstin Bruckmeier, head of an IAB research group, says: “A large part of the crisis-related loss of income is offset by unemployment insurance.”
If you add in the child bonus, the increase in the tax-free threshold for single parents, the emergency supplementary child benefit, and easier access for job seekers to the services of basic social security, and if you also take households with no one working into account, then disposable income across all income brackets declined by just 0.1 percent on average.
And in fact, the net income of the bottom 20 percent actually increased slightly. In the upper income brackets, the trend remains negative, so income inequality is not becoming worse.
The results incorporate developments through September 2020; in other words, prior to the sharp rise in infections that started in October. Nevertheless, distribution outcomes are not expected to change materially, due in part to the aid provided in November and December.
“How the crisis will affect income distribution in the coming years depends critically on how pandemic-related unemployment and financial support for the public develop further,” the researchers write in the study.
