Resume af teksten:
Japanske vælgere skal til stemmeurnerne i weekenden, hvilket kan få konsekvenser for landets aktiemarked. Hvis premierminister Sanae Takaichis parti opnår flertal, kan det give politisk stabilitet. Bekymringer om potentielt øget offentligt forbrug presser obligationsmarkedet, men aktiemarkederne befinder sig nær rekordniveauer. TOPIX-indekset har klaret sig godt med en 80% total afkast de seneste tre år, men fremtidige afkast forventes at falde til 6.7%. USA-samarbejde mod Kinas dominans kan give Japanske virksomheder muligheder, især inden for industrierobotik. Japanske selskaber opfordres nu til bedre aktionærrettigheder og likviditetsstyring. Software-aktier har oplevet et stort dyk, og markedet er stadig tøvende med at forsvare dem. Goldman Sachs’ ISG taler imod at overvægt deres teknologi-aktier, og fremhæver S&P 500 som et svært benchmark at slå. I Latinamerika forventes moderat vækst i 2026 med Brasilien, Mexico og Argentina, der foretager afgørende økonomiske tiltag. Venezuela er fortsat i økonomisk krise, mens Peru forventes at lede vækst med 3.1%.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
With Japanese voters heading to the polls this weekend, investors are weighing what the snap election could mean for the country’s stock market. If Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner can get a working majority in the election, the government will gain more policy stability, says Bruce Kirk , Goldman Sachs Research’s chief Japan equity strategist. On the other hand, investors are worried that “having a stronger policy mandate means Takaichi will spend more aggressively and fund a fiscal expansion,” he explains. With Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio the highest in the developed world, the trend of increased fiscal spending has been a focus for bond markets lately. Yet both of Japan’s major stock indexes are trading around record levels. “Equities market participants do not seem to be concerned about what is happening in the Japanese bond market,” Kirk says. Over the last three years, Japan’s TOPIX index has generated a cumulative total return of more than 80%. But Kirk says it’s getting more challenging for the country’s stocks to keep generating those kinds of returns. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the index will return 6.7% in the next 12 months (as of February 4). Greater cooperation with the US as a result of concerns about China’s dominance in critical supply chains and industrial sectors could boost Japanese companies this year. “A reindustrialization push could further create meaningful opportunities for Japanese firms in sub-sectors such as industrial robotics and factory automation,” says Kirk.
At the same time, many of the challenges that have long dogged Japan are now shifting. Take Japanese companies’ penchant for sitting on cash instead of returning it to shareholders. The TOPIX lags other global benchmarks when it comes to return on equity, but new policies are encouraging Japanese companies to improve their balance sheet management and the rights of shareholders, Kirk says. Japan’s perennial disinflation may also finally be ebbing as wages grow in tandem with a healthy dose of inflation. “We have a virtuous cycle in place that could benefit domestic demand-related stocks,” says Kirk. In case you missed it: Listen to our episode of The Markets podcast on which equity markets might outperform in 2026.
From the Trading Floor: the Software Selloff
Software stocks have dropped significantly, with the Goldman Sachs Software Basket falling more than 15% since the start of last week, as of Thursday’s close. And so far, investors are continuing to stay away, according to Lou Miller, global head of Equity Custom Baskets in Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities. “Even though software is now in a bear market and has entered oversold territory, no one is stepping in to defend the complex yet, and buyers continue to beware,” Miller says.
Software is by far the most sold subsector year-to-date, according to Goldman Sachs Prime Book data. While software stocks made up 7% of hedge funds’ net exposure to US stocks at the start of the year, they now comprise just 3%.
Quoted: Why Benchmark Exposure Is Hard to Beat
“The S&P 500 Index is a very hard index to beat. It’s cheap, it’s tax efficient, and over time it’s been such a difficult benchmark to beat that one should not adjust that. Do we think one should overweight the Magnificent Seven and the technology sector? No, not necessarily. We’d rather just have broad market cap exposure in the S&P 500.” —Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, head of the Investment Strategy Group (ISG) and chief investment officer for Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs. To learn more about the Investment Strategy Group’s outlook for 2026, read their full outlook report or listen to Mossavar-Rahmani on the Exchanges podcast .
Latin America Expected to Post Steady Though Modest GDP Growth
After navigating last year’s challenges from US tariffs, Latin America is poised to have steady though not exuberant economic growth in 2026, says Alberto Ramos, the head of the Latin America economic research team at Goldman Sachs Research. The region’s top seven economies are projected to record growth of 1.9%, down from an estimated 2.1% in 2025. Inflation is forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4% (all forecasts as of January 22).
Among the key developments this year: Brazil is poised to lower interest rates; Mexico will negotiate/review the USMCA trade agreement; and Argentina may return to the international bond market as its fiscal picture consolidates and the outlook for reforms improves. Meanwhile, Venezuela has been trapped in an extended economic depression and hyper-inflationary period. Since 2012, Venezuela’s GDP has shrunk around 80% in dollar terms, to an estimated $83 billion in 2025. Its economy is roughly the size of Uruguay’s, and less than a quarter the size of Chile’s. In contrast, Peru, the sixth largest economy in the region, is expected to set the pace for GDP growth: 3.1%.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
