De seneste års virus-epidemier fra SARS til Corona-virussen påvirker markederne, viser en analyse fra Nordea. Aktiemarkederne faldt umiddelbart efter, op til 25 pct., mens obligationerne næsten var uforandrede.
Uddrag fra Nordea:
We have taken a look at market moves around the outbreak of SARS, Bird- and Swineflu. Current fatality rates of the Wuhan virus are still below that of SARS (3% vs. 10% approximately) but one should of course consider that China has at the very least doubled its importance for the global economy as a whole since 2002/2003 when SARS broke out.
The severity of the Wuhan virus remains to be determined, for that reason we simply took a look at outbreaks over the recent past and found that: (Full quantpack attached here)
Equities: Equities temporarily sold off post SARS. Europe was hit the worst (20-25% drawdown), while MSCI World drawdown was less than 10%. Hang Seng hit after both SARS and Bird-flu outbreaks.
Chart 1: Less than 10% drawdown in MSCI World post SARS
Rates: Long bonds up (rates lower), more cuts priced but only marginally flatter curve – same pattern in EUR and USD. Bunds rose markedly post the SARS-outbreak.
Chart 2: Treasury futures moved up after SARS and Birdflu
