Der er en voksende bekymring for udfaldet af den amerikanske centralbanks møde i næste uge, og det har ført til kursfald i USA og Asien, og det kan give fald i de europæiske aktier. Flere analytikere mener, at centralbanken kan overraske markedet i næste uge ved en kraftigere ændring af pengepolitikken end ventet, og det kan skabe uro på markederne i dagene op til jul. Dollaren ventes at blive styrket. Den kinesiske centralbank griber ind mod spekulation i en stærkere yuan.
Uddrag fra Fidelity/Dow Jones:
Focus on U.S. Inflation as Market Worries Mount
Europe is seen following the U.S. and Asia lower as the recent rally cools, with caution ahead of the latest U.S. inflation print likely to keep risk assets in check. In Asia, the dollar and oil followed stocks lower, with Treasury yields and gold managing minor gains.
Equities:
European shares are likely to extend losses on Friday, tracking the retreat on global markets, as investors look ahead to the latest U.S. inflation data that might influence a Federal Reserve decision on tightening economic policy.
“Europe will likely open lower as the street takes risk off the table into the U.S. inflation data and the weekend, which will now contain plenty of headline risk, be it Omicron, China or the Ukraine etc,” wrote Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, OANDA.
U.S. stocks continued to trade fitfully, with major indexes falling Thursday as investors assessed weekly jobless claims data and the latest global restrictions targeting the spread of Omicron. Nasdaq suffered the worst losses, with its dip accelerating during the afternoon.
However, no major moves are expected ahead of the latest U.S. CPI data, due later in the day. Strong inflation figures will likely boost expectations for a faster Fed shift to policy tightening. That could boost the dollar in advance of the central bank’s policy decision next week.
“You’re definitely seeing an oscillation between risk-on and risk-off over the last couple weeks and I see that continuing to Christmas,” said Silicon Valley Bank’s Minh Trang.
The Fed could take markets by surprise at next week’s meeting as it speeds up monetary tightening, said deVere’s Nigel Green. “The central bank will give several months’ notice to the markets for a major policy shift. As such, if it is to maximize flexibility to raise rates, they will begin sooner rather than later, even as soon as next week.”
Green expects turbulence to ensue, but he advises investors to “embrace the volatility” as a buying opportunity.
China’s central bank may introduce more tools to intervene in the foreign-exchange market and rein in one-way movement of the yuan’s exchange rate, said CICC. It anticipates the PBOC will reintroduce a counter-cyclical factor in setting the yuan’s daily reference rate and curb capital inflows.
The central bank on Thursday said it will raise banks’ foreign-currency reserves requirement by two percentage points, which is expect to curb speculation of a stronger yuan. CICC expects the yuan’s value to retreat after the government’s intervention in the short run.
